St. Cloud St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 965 (#377) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1014 (#276) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1048 (#142) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +14.9 (#45) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +14.7 (#149) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.553 (#339) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.462 (#291) | NetEff -1.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.925 (#185) | AdjNet +21.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.933 (#183) | AdjNet +22.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.785 (#184) | AdjO 71.3 | AdjD 57.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.667 (#105) | AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 61.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.762 (#133) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.748 (#136) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1041 (#216) | RD 93 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Washburn | W | 73 - 61 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Central Okla. | W | 61 - 59 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Northern Mich. | L | 69 - 77 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Michigan Tech | L | 66 - 69 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Minnesota St. | L | 81 - 110 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Alas. Fairbanks | W | 101 - 53 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Concordia-St. Paul | L | 50 - 75 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Winona St. | L | 66 - 72 |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | Augustana (SD) | L | 68 - 72 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | W | 78 - 55 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Southwest Minn. St. | L | 64 - 75 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Minnesota St. | L | 56 - 83 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Mary | L | 67 - 79 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Bemidji St. | W | 77 - 56 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Minn. Duluth | L | 71 - 74 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Jamestown | W | 79 - 72 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Northern St. | W | 70 - 39 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | MSU Moorhead | L | 67 - 78 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Minn.-Crookston | W | 69 - 67 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | W | 82 - 67 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Sioux Falls | W | 72 - 56 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jada Eggebrecht | - | 21 | 29.8 | 14.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 24 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 44.7 | 42.7 | 92.0 | -1.51 | 55.8 | 51.6 |
| Alana Zarneke | - | 21 | 26.5 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 45 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 39.1 | 31.1 | 83.3 | 5.69 | 47.6 | 45.0 |
| Abigail O'Reilly | - | 21 | 19.1 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 6.8 | -11 | -0.5 | -3.1 | 43.8 | 0 | 75.0 | -0.66 | 52.3 | 43.8 |
| Paige Lambe | - | 21 | 17.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 24 | 1.0 | 6.1 | 46.2 | 0 | 65.0 | 1.7 | 49.2 | 46.2 |
| Rachel Kottke | - | 21 | 26.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 36.1 | 31.3 | 84.8 | 2.1 | 48.0 | 43.2 |
| Reagan Briggs | - | 16 | 23.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 65 | 3.6 | 17.8 | 45.7 | 46.7 | 73.9 | 0.87 | 56.3 | 53.3 |
| Kristi Kottke | - | 21 | 24.5 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 31 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 37.5 | 27.9 | 77.4 | -0.73 | 47.1 | 42.5 |
| Ashley Sawicki | - | 9 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 56 | 5.6 | 33.3 | 39.4 | 0 | 76.9 | 4.98 | 46.5 | 39.4 |
| Brynn Olson | - | 20 | 12.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | -37 | -1.7 | -22.8 | 35.9 | 20.0 | 87.5 | 1.51 | 44.7 | 39.7 |
| CJ Adamson | - | 21 | 16.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 20 | 0.9 | 5.7 | 42.6 | 45.0 | 80.0 | 1.3 | 52.5 | 50.9 |
| Halle Vande Hey | - | 14 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -43 | -2.9 | -115.8 | 33.3 | 28.6 | 66.7 | -2.32 | 44.1 | 38.1 |
| Laynie Meister | - | 9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | -11 | -1.2 | -106.9 | 40.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 32.8 | 40.0 |
| Elise Groppoli | - | 9 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -24 | -3.0 | -190.7 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 25.0 | -0.95 | 30.7 | 31.2 |
| Annika Peper | - | 8 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -15 | -1.9 | -119.2 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | -0.95 | 42.5 | 30.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG