Southwest Baptist
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1070 (#76) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1030 (#214) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 973 (#429) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +8.0 (#123) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +9.0 (#171) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.405 (#389) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#11) | NetEff +77.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.633 (#343) | AdjNet +4.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.641 (#344) | AdjNet +5.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.593 (#335) | AdjO 73.3 | AdjD 69.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.649 (#105) | AdjO 74.0 | AdjD 67.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.680 (#161) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.667 (#164) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1017 (#205) | RD 91 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Thomas More | L | 53 - 70 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Ohio Dominican | W | 56 - 54 |
| 2025-11-17 | vs | Ecclesia | W | 59 - 48 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Harding | L | 72 - 79 |
| 2025-11-24 | vs | Calvary | W | 88 - 43 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Lincoln (MO) | L | 68 - 77 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Drury | W | 76 - 59 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Bloomsburg | W | 83 - 43 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | William Jewell | L | 61 - 74 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Truman St. | W | 76 - 61 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Newman | W | 95 - 74 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Mo. Southern St. | W | 79 - 71 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Williams Baptist | W | 97 - 68 |
| 2026-01-04 | @ | Rockhurst | L | 78 - 87 |
| 2026-01-08 | vs | Lincoln (MO) | W | 70 - 62 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Mo.-St. Louis | L | 46 - 78 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | McKendree | L | 62 - 69 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Ill. Springfield | L | 61 - 84 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | UIndy | L | 71 - 78 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Lewis | W | 82 - 48 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Upper Iowa | W | 86 - 74 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Quincy | W | 84 - 58 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Truman St. | L | 67 - 73 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | William Jewell | L | 66 - 77 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryl Simmons II | - | 1 | 22.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 25 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 53.8 | 45.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 73.1 | 73.1 |
| Zac Reedus | - | 23 | 32.9 | 17.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 37 | 1.6 | 6.3 | 49.5 | 31.6 | 65.0 | -0.91 | 56.5 | 52.6 |
| Joseph Grahovac | - | 1 | 30.5 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 22.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 76.8 | 75.0 |
| Barron Silsby | - | 21 | 31.8 | 12.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 25 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 45.4 | 37.4 | 79.5 | -1.55 | 60.6 | 58.0 |
| Jevin Sullivan | - | 23 | 27.7 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 49 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 52.5 | 37.5 | 77.0 | -1.16 | 60.8 | 55.0 |
| Leo Gayman | - | 15 | 24.5 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 47 | 3.1 | 15.2 | 47.8 | 36.6 | 87.0 | 2.96 | 62.2 | 54.4 |
| Achille Lonati | - | 1 | 18.3 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 40.0 | 50.0 | - | 69.8 | 71.4 |
| Frank Mitchell | - | 1 | 19.7 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 66.7 | - | 37.5 | 33.3 |
| Brandon Moore | - | 19 | 27.5 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | -40 | -2.1 | -11.0 | 53.0 | 33.9 | 50.0 | -0.94 | 59.6 | 59.7 |
| Daniel Egbuniwe | - | 1 | 18.3 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 60.5 | 57.1 |
| Andrew Osasuyi | - | 1 | 20.3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 71.7 | 75.0 |
| Luke Ogle | - | 23 | 27.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 68 | 3.0 | 15.4 | 41.2 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 3.0 | 52.5 | 50.7 |
| Lachie McKain | - | 21 | 22.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 66 | 3.1 | 17.7 | 35.5 | 39.5 | 66.7 | 0.98 | 51.7 | 51.4 |
| Ilia Ermakov | - | 1 | 20.7 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | - | 102.5 | 125.0 |
| Dasonte Bowen | - | 1 | 19.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 0 | - | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Jack DeRose | - | 1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Sasha Glushkov | - | 23 | 12.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | -28 | -1.2 | -11.6 | 36.5 | 25.8 | 47.1 | 1.06 | 44.0 | 42.9 |
| Tyler Franklin | - | 20 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 11 | 0.6 | 5.7 | 44.1 | 23.1 | 66.7 | 0.46 | 52.2 | 48.5 |
| Jeremy Moore | - | 4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | -8 | -2.0 | -72.2 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.76 | 63.0 | 33.3 |
| Eli Kennedy | - | 8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -15 | -1.9 | -119.6 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.23 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Nelson Shinkle | - | 4 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | -9 | -2.2 | -81.2 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.76 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Connor Shuler | - | 4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -7 | -1.8 | -63.2 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.76 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Chase Coomer | - | 4 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -4 | -1.0 | -29.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.11 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cayden Charles | - | 1 | 23.4 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Broek Ostrom | - | 1 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG