Southern Va.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1109 (#63) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1162 (#77) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1174 (#40) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.7 (#130) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.2 (#178) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.974 (#170) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.888 (#172) | NetEff +14.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.841 (#247) | AdjNet +14.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.846 (#246) | AdjNet +14.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.677 (#254) | AdjO 65.2 | AdjD 57.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.730 (#99) | AdjO 66.4 | AdjD 55.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.799 (#131) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.801 (#128) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1208 (#63) | RD 101 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Wash. & Lee | L | 38 - 71 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Guilford | L | 71 - 80 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Methodist | W | 69 - 45 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Meredith | W | 74 - 51 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Bridgewater (VA) | L | 51 - 71 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Mary Washington | W | 54 - 42 |
| 2025-12-15 | vs | N.C. Wesleyan | W | 74 - 62 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | William Peace | W | 67 - 52 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | WashU | L | 66 - 83 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Wellesley | W | 62 - 49 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | N.C. Wesleyan | W | 64 - 53 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Mary Baldwin | W | 87 - 41 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Pfeiffer | W | 67 - 65 |
| 2026-01-20 | @ | Greensboro | W | 83 - 54 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Brevard | W | 72 - 68 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Chris. Newport | L | 55 - 79 |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | Greensboro | W | 87 - 52 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Meredith | W | 66 - 51 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | William Peace | W | 58 - 54 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail Snyder | - | 19 | 34.0 | 18.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 14.9 | 10.8 | 243 | 12.8 | 103.8 | 43.3 | 40.6 | 84.1 | 1.59 | 55.2 | 50.9 |
| Anna Kimball | - | 19 | 27.5 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 215 | 11.3 | 137.7 | 52.3 | 0 | 58.6 | 0.54 | 54.4 | 52.3 |
| Maria Savvun | - | 18 | 32.8 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 187 | 10.4 | 125.8 | 31.4 | 30.5 | 70.4 | 2.5 | 44.4 | 42.2 |
| Aysia Foster | - | 18 | 23.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 153 | 8.1 | 129.3 | 53.8 | 50.0 | 69.6 | 1.35 | 57.6 | 54.2 |
| Samantha Smith | - | 19 | 22.1 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 6.4 | 5.3 | -23 | -0.6 | -5.8 | 43.0 | 27.7 | 65.6 | -2.38 | 51.1 | 48.3 |
| Ruth Kempler | - | 9 | 17.1 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 46 | 6.6 | 30.2 | 52.2 | 50.0 | 71.4 | 2.25 | 56.6 | 53.3 |
| Kensey Peterson | - | 19 | 15.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 95 | 5.0 | 142.9 | 45.6 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 58.1 | 58.8 |
| Lily Delarosa | - | 19 | 15.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 37 | 1.9 | 21.6 | 25.0 | 18.5 | 88.2 | 0.42 | 37.0 | 29.2 |
| KT Okonkwo | - | 5 | 11.8 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | - | - | - | 35.3 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 34.4 | 35.3 |
| Maya Foster | - | 19 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 19 | 1.0 | 24.7 | 30.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.38 | 30.3 | 32.1 |
| Emma Openshaw | - | 8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | -18 | -1.8 | -151.6 | 23.1 | 18.2 | 0 | -0.84 | 30.8 | 30.8 |
| Caitlyn Lanning | - | 13 | 7.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 22 | 1.5 | 46.4 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 50.0 | 0.13 | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| Lyla Seneca | - | 12 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -31 | -2.2 | -191.3 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.78 | 16.7 | 16.7 |
| Jocelyn Stewart | - | 6 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.2 | -21 | -2.6 | -331.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.43 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG