Southern Nazarene
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1039 (#121) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1218 (#30) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1101 (#74) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +18.9 (#22) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +15.9 (#90) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.728 (#197) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.983 (#114) | NetEff +39.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.905 (#130) | AdjNet +19.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.895 (#144) | AdjNet +18.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.773 (#148) | AdjO 79.5 | AdjD 66.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.708 (#65) | AdjO 76.1 | AdjD 66.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.820 (#56) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.803 (#58) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1188 (#57) | RD 107 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Jamestown | W | 71 - 67 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Northern St. | W | 72 - 66 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Missouri Western | W | 82 - 79 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Northeastern St. | W | 91 - 71 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | Cameron | W | 89 - 70 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Rogers St. | W | 67 - 65 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Southern Ark. | W | 79 - 69 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Ark.-Monticello | W | 59 - 50 |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | East Central | W | 88 - 80 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Southwestern Okla. | W | 83 - 55 |
| 2025-12-18 | @ | Northwestern Okla. | L | 60 - 63 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Southeastern Okla. | W | 90 - 60 |
| 2026-01-08 | vs | Harding | L | 67 - 74 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Arkansas Tech | W | 62 - 39 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Henderson St. | W | 90 - 85 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Ouachita Baptist | L | 75 - 83 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Okla. Baptist | L | 61 - 84 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Ark.-Monticello | W | 64 - 50 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Southern Ark. | W | 66 - 51 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Arkansas Tech | W | 77 - 70 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Harding | L | 60 - 81 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baron Bracey | - | 21 | 35.4 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 18 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 36.5 | 29.9 | 82.9 | 0.83 | 49.9 | 41.2 |
| Tracy Godfrey Jr. | - | 21 | 29.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 6.8 | 12.4 | 51 | 2.4 | 12.9 | 60.6 | 0 | 76.4 | -0.65 | 66.2 | 60.6 |
| Malik Edwards | - | 21 | 27.8 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 8 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 44.0 | 29.4 | 86.4 | 0.55 | 56.0 | 49.7 |
| Joe Mpoyo | - | 13 | 27.3 | 10.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | -21 | -1.6 | -5.5 | 39.0 | 37.5 | 58.3 | 0.12 | 54.8 | 54.2 |
| Bam Johnson | - | 19 | 27.1 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 56 | 2.9 | 20.0 | 49.0 | 18.8 | 61.5 | -0.34 | 53.0 | 51.0 |
| Colby Henderson | - | 19 | 29.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 63 | 3.3 | 27.6 | 46.9 | 21.7 | 69.2 | -0.17 | 51.3 | 48.8 |
| James Burries | - | 19 | 16.6 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 57 | 3.0 | 31.3 | 47.7 | 36.5 | 63.3 | 1.78 | 58.2 | 56.5 |
| Aaron Potter | - | 18 | 15.3 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 31 | 1.7 | 21.2 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 86.5 | 0.03 | 55.5 | 47.0 |
| Brady Cook | - | 20 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 18 | 0.9 | 12.7 | 40.3 | 27.6 | 73.1 | 1.1 | 52.4 | 46.8 |
| Xavier Ridenour | - | 11 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -19 | -1.7 | -27.8 | 38.5 | 16.7 | 0 | -0.09 | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| Luca Cawthorn-Breheny | - | 9 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | -4 | -0.5 | -36.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.95 | 41.0 | 50.0 |
| Kaedon Bonner | - | 9 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 41.0 | 50.0 |
| Skylar Yoder | - | 2 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4 | 2.0 | 101.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 0 |
| Shota Abashidze | - | 1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG