🐻⬇️🏀

Smith

Also known as: Smith
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1115 (#55) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1317 (#13) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1273 (#9) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +24.8 (#16) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +23.6 (#101) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.978 (#167) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +33.6 More → 0.988 (#90) NetEff +33.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +42.2 More → 0.993 (#101) AdjNet +42.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +42.0 More → 0.993 (#104) AdjNet +42.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.4 | AdjD 50.2 More → 0.915 (#115) AdjO 76.4 | AdjD 50.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 50.5 More → 0.898 (#16) AdjO 74.4 | AdjD 50.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.937 (#37) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.937 (#29) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 113 | GP 21 More → 1414 (#9) RD 113 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Albertus Magnus W 78 - 44
2025-11-09 vs Hartford W 74 - 41
2025-11-19 @ UMass Dartmouth W 83 - 38
2025-11-22 @ JWU (Providence) W 78 - 60
2025-11-30 vs Trinity (CT) W 72 - 61
2025-12-03 vs Williams W 67 - 48
2025-12-10 vs MIT W 78 - 45
2025-12-30 vs Husson W 106 - 36
2025-12-31 vs TCNJ W 85 - 61
2026-01-10 @ Springfield W 62 - 54
2026-01-13 @ Middlebury W 65 - 52
2026-01-17 @ Coast Guard W 76 - 48
2026-01-20 @ Tufts L 57 - 60
2026-01-21 vs Mount Holyoke W 87 - 36
2026-01-24 @ Salve Regina W 68 - 44
2026-01-28 vs Wellesley W 88 - 38
2026-01-31 vs Springfield W 66 - 47
2026-02-04 @ Wheaton (MA) W 87 - 55
2026-02-07 vs Clark (MA) W 76 - 64

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Virginia Johnson - 19 24.5 11.6 6.3 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.8 9.0 11.7 173 8.2 53.0 46.8 44.4 73.9 2.37 61.0 59.6
Felicia Fongemie - 19 20.9 10.5 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.0 1.7 7.4 5.1 148 7.4 51.2 52.1 28.9 86.0 0.74 61.7 56.1
Uta Nakamura - 19 26.8 9.8 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.1 2.3 6.9 7.6 201 9.6 60.1 51.9 40.6 77.6 3.07 61.3 56.9
Hannah Martin - 12 25.2 8.9 4.4 3.0 1.1 0.2 1.9 8.0 7.7 111 7.9 39.8 40.6 28.2 72.0 1.87 50.0 46.4
Selam Maher - 19 20.9 8.2 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 1.2 6.0 4.4 198 9.4 61.3 47.4 48.6 100.0 4.68 65.2 62.7
Mya Williams - 17 13.3 5.6 4.4 0.8 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.9 6.0 180 10.0 98.6 50.7 0 71.8 4.72 57.0 50.7
Kate Hackney - 19 13.9 5.4 4.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 3.3 7.9 51 2.4 22.9 57.1 0 63.8 2.85 60.9 57.1
Ella Sylvester - 16 18.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 4.2 5.7 139 7.7 59.1 49.3 0 64.3 0.35 53.0 49.3
Maggie Fleming - 19 15.5 4.7 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 3.7 4.2 143 6.8 80.9 51.4 50.0 100.0 -1.1 60.5 57.1
Bre'Aria Cannon - 15 16.7 3.9 5.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 1.3 3.7 6.2 115 6.4 92.6 39.3 28.6 92.3 0.51 47.0 41.1
Shea Montague - 12 7.0 3.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 2.9 1.7 51 4.6 57.0 51.4 50.0 25.0 -0.83 62.6 64.3
Jillian Nowicki - 14 11.1 3.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.2 162 12.5 121.5 37.5 46.2 80.0 2.41 56.3 52.5
Samara Ashooh - 5 4.2 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 2.0 44 8.8 344.0 54.5 0 33.3 0.25 52.8 54.5
Ella Andrews - 9 5.2 2.6 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 1 0.1 3.8 56.2 0 50.0 -1.35 56.4 56.2
Alina Abdulina - 9 5.2 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.0 2.8 51 6.4 159.8 55.6 100.0 40.0 0.81 62.5 66.7
Lena Lipani - 8 4.4 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.1 -11 -1.4 -55.6 16.7 0 100.0 0.59 23.3 16.7

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG