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Shenandoah

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Shenandoah
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1154 (#24) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1331 (#10) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1133 (#70) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +17.3 (#46) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +15.6 (#156) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.914 (#229) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +15.3 More → 0.890 (#169) NetEff +15.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +22.2 More → 0.928 (#187) AdjNet +22.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.7 More → 0.929 (#188) AdjNet +21.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 55.3 More → 0.752 (#203) AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 55.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 53.4 More → 0.762 (#82) AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 53.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.851 (#102) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.846 (#101) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 21 More → 1268 (#35) RD 102 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-10 vs Catholic W 62 - 59
2025-11-15 @ Wilson W 75 - 57
2025-11-21 vs Gettysburg W 63 - 52
2025-11-22 vs Mary Washington W 58 - 45
2025-11-25 @ Dickinson W 72 - 60
2025-11-30 vs Chris. Newport L 49 - 64
2025-12-03 @ Va. Wesleyan W 62 - 61
2025-12-14 @ Elizabethtown W 56 - 54
2025-12-20 @ Salisbury W 79 - 57
2026-01-10 @ Wash. & Lee L 52 - 69
2026-01-14 vs Randolph-Macon W 67 - 42
2026-01-17 vs Lynchburg W 72 - 51
2026-01-21 @ East. Mennonite W 69 - 47
2026-01-23 vs Randolph L 54 - 56
2026-01-29 @ Bridgewater (VA) L 49 - 63
2026-01-30 @ Guilford L 75 - 80
2026-02-04 vs Va. Wesleyan W 67 - 60
2026-02-07 vs Hollins W 68 - 56

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Addisyn Banks - 18 32.7 18.2 7.9 3.9 2.3 0.7 3.6 15.8 13.7 77 3.5 15.3 40.5 32.1 68.2 3.4 49.5 44.9
Emily Williams - 18 33.3 14.2 9.1 3.4 2.3 0.3 2.7 10.2 16.4 86 3.9 17.7 59.6 31.2 71.7 0.52 63.0 60.9
Brynna Nesselrodt - 18 28.8 12.1 3.9 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.4 11.4 4.4 60 2.9 13.7 38.8 36.8 82.4 1.03 50.8 49.3
Skai Bayless - 18 30.0 7.7 3.4 2.8 1.1 0.2 1.9 6.6 6.7 67 3.0 15.8 41.5 23.8 81.8 0.52 50.6 43.6
Taylor Moran - 16 23.2 5.8 3.8 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.8 7.6 2.7 61 3.2 27.9 27.9 21.7 91.7 -1.81 36.1 33.2
Jessica Littlejohn - 14 27.3 3.7 1.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 2.0 4.3 2.1 81 4.5 20.8 36.7 28.6 50.0 0.28 40.9 40.0
Reagan Smith - 4 4.1 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.2 45 2.2 32.4 33.3 0 100.0 4.06 43.6 33.3
Mya Martin - 15 11.7 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 -17 -0.9 -11.1 31.8 0 100.0 -1.53 37.9 31.8
Tristan Shavers - 14 7.8 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 9 0.6 11.6 50.0 0 71.4 -1.56 57.3 50.0
Maddie Belan - 3 7.4 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.3 -1.0 - - - 10.0 0.0 50.0 - 13.8 10.0
Lily Berger - 18 10.4 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.4 0.6 1.1 9 0.4 5.9 36.4 60.0 100.0 -1.21 54.7 50.0
Lydia Pedersen - 8 5.6 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 8 0.8 15.1 33.3 0 0.0 -0.44 29.1 33.3
Anaya Wilson - 11 5.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 -0.5 -18 -1.4 -26.9 15.8 0.0 0.0 -0.36 15.1 15.8
Wren Wheeler - 3 2.4 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 -0.7 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Mackenzie Bloomfield - 1 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Alex Florian - 1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Kiersten Hostetter - 1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2 -2.0 -94.1 0 0 0 -0.51 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG