Saginaw Valley
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 807 (#506) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 926 (#396) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 824 (#665) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +1.2 (#159) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.7 (#378) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.297 (#445) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.114 (#393) | NetEff -15.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.776 (#285) | AdjNet +10.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.790 (#284) | AdjNet +11.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.663 (#284) | AdjO 65.7 | AdjD 58.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.399 (#531) | AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 65.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.383 (#464) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.370 (#475) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 792 (#474) | RD 99 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Northwood | L | 64 - 69 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Findlay | L | 53 - 57 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Drury | W | 62 - 54 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Gannon | L | 53 - 59 |
| 2025-11-26 | @ | Wingate | L | 55 - 74 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Davenport | W | 68 - 64 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Grand Valley St. | L | 45 - 92 |
| 2025-12-15 | @ | Thomas More | L | 55 - 77 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Walsh | W | 73 - 65 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Hillsdale | L | 58 - 70 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Wayne St. (MI) | L | 39 - 77 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Wis.-Parkside | L | 66 - 79 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Michigan Tech | L | 40 - 59 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Northern Mich. | L | 51 - 67 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Lake Superior St. | L | 73 - 79 |
| 2026-01-26 | @ | Ferris St. | L | 67 - 89 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Wis.-Parkside | L | 61 - 75 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Roosevelt | W | 59 - 50 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Northern Mich. | L | 69 - 80 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Michigan Tech | L | 67 - 68 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan McCalla | - | 20 | 28.5 | 13.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 11.7 | 5.8 | -79 | -3.8 | -14.5 | 41.2 | 20.4 | 82.8 | 0.6 | 50.5 | 43.3 |
| Lydia Meredith | - | 19 | 33.0 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 10.6 | 11.2 | -88 | -4.4 | -16.1 | 36.3 | 23.1 | 74.7 | 1.55 | 47.2 | 40.0 |
| Kaitlyn Geurink | - | 20 | 30.4 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 8.1 | 4.8 | -82 | -3.9 | -12.2 | 42.0 | 31.9 | 74.0 | 0.61 | 53.0 | 48.8 |
| Lauren Borsenik | - | 20 | 23.5 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 7.0 | -35 | -1.7 | -6.7 | 51.5 | 40.7 | 77.8 | 0.98 | 58.5 | 55.8 |
| Bella Paradowski | - | 20 | 12.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 4.2 | 3.0 | -90 | -4.3 | -44.2 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 65.5 | -3.21 | 39.2 | 33.7 |
| Lainey Yater | - | 20 | 27.7 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 5.5 | -59 | -2.8 | -12.4 | 35.8 | 36.7 | 70.0 | 4.29 | 46.2 | 44.0 |
| Emma Dziezgowski | - | 19 | 9.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | -47 | -2.5 | -22.2 | 27.6 | 22.7 | 81.2 | 0.28 | 42.3 | 36.2 |
| Elizabeth Stuart | - | 8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 3 | 0.3 | 8.3 | 37.5 | 45.5 | 100.0 | 1.85 | 56.3 | 53.1 |
| Kacie Bush | - | 11 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -68 | -5.2 | -98.2 | 38.9 | 20.0 | 62.5 | -1.94 | 48.8 | 44.4 |
| Chloe Kilbride | - | 19 | 12.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | -0.2 | -66 | -3.1 | -25.7 | 22.7 | 23.3 | 100.0 | -3.52 | 33.9 | 30.7 |
| Mari Bink | - | 2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -2.0 | - | - | - | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 27.6 | 20.0 |
| Beckham Hockley | - | 18 | 10.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | -66 | -3.5 | -38.4 | 26.7 | 25.0 | 0 | -1.64 | 38.3 | 38.3 |
| Laynie Meredith | - | 19 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -53 | -2.5 | -28.1 | 16.7 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -2.72 | 27.7 | 21.7 |
| Emma Riley | - | 5 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | -18 | -3.6 | -411.4 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.48 | 36.8 | 40.0 |
| Maggie Keinsley | - | 3 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 5 | 1.7 | 47.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.47 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG