🐻⬇️🏀

SFA

Also known as: SFA
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1036 (#214) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1099 (#154) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1000 (#453) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +29.3 (#30) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +23.6 (#94) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.988 (#180) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +24.9 More → 0.947 (#140) AdjNet +24.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +24.4 More → 0.947 (#144) AdjNet +24.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 86.7 | AdjD 67.5 More → 0.852 (#139) AdjO 86.7 | AdjD 67.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 88.1 | AdjD 72.4 More → 0.806 (#25) AdjO 88.1 | AdjD 72.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.833 (#68) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.820 (#66) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 286 | GP 1 More → 1091 (#195) RD 286 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Millsaps - Incomplete score
2025-12-21 vs Dallas - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.