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Rust

Also known as: Rust Bearcats
Program History

Model Outputs

2021-2022 latest available
Catalog

No materialized model snapshot for 2025 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +115 elo More → 997 (#279) HCA +115 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -15.7 (#721) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More → -11.9 (#491) HCA +2.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.0 | AdjD 69.5 More → 0.465 (#405) AdjO 68.0 | AdjD 69.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.275 (#487) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.306 (#491) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 938 (#309) RD 350 | GP 1

2025 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

Not enough player minute data to plot.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
J. Upshaw J. Upshaw F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
C. Ward C. Ward G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - 43 2.5 10.5 - - - 0.22 - -
Isaiah McCallum Isaiah McCallum F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
K. Young K. Young G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG