🐻⬇️🏀

Rockhurst

Also known as: Rockhurst
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 826 (#496) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 875 (#454) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 853 (#648) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -14.7 (#271) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -13.0 (#542) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.409 (#393) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.9 More → 0.525 (#396) AdjNet +0.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +1.7 More → 0.550 (#390) AdjNet +1.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.7 | AdjD 65.3 More → 0.508 (#403) AdjO 65.7 | AdjD 65.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 54.7 | AdjD 66.5 More → 0.255 (#641) AdjO 54.7 | AdjD 66.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.234 (#579) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.228 (#589) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 20 More → 790 (#476) RD 102 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Central Chris. Bible W 82 - 20
2025-11-15 vs Park (MO) W 81 - 66
2025-11-19 @ Northwest Mo. St. L 53 - 66
2025-11-21 vs Hannibal-La Grange W 82 - 41
2025-11-29 vs Truman St. L 58 - 81
2025-12-01 @ McKendree L 50 - 96
2025-12-06 @ William Jewell W 75 - 54
2025-12-15 vs Cent. Christian (KS) W 71 - 45
2026-01-02 @ Drury L 46 - 80
2026-01-10 vs Maryville (MO) L 50 - 72
2026-01-15 @ Ill. Springfield L 36 - 86
2026-01-17 @ UIndy L 61 - 65
2026-01-22 vs Lewis L 44 - 93
2026-01-24 vs Upper Iowa L 60 - 73
2026-01-29 @ Quincy L 48 - 64
2026-01-31 @ Truman St. L 38 - 77
2026-02-05 vs William Jewell W 71 - 63

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Macie Conway - 16 27.7 12.6 2.4 1.1 1.6 0.1 2.9 11.0 3.9 -38 -2.0 -11.1 36.9 19.0 63.6 -3.63 45.8 39.2
Tori Miller - 17 27.2 12.5 4.3 2.5 2.2 0.2 3.9 10.3 7.6 -39 -1.9 -12.8 44.0 0.0 59.0 -0.11 48.6 44.0
Keeley Steele - 17 24.6 7.4 3.5 1.6 1.5 0.2 2.4 7.1 4.8 -46 -2.3 -15.4 36.4 26.3 71.9 -0.88 46.6 42.6
Ella Campbell - 15 22.3 6.8 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.1 7.8 1.1 -13 -0.5 -4.4 29.9 26.8 100.0 -1.8 42.6 41.0
Kayla Reis - 17 20.9 6.4 2.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.4 6.4 2.1 -66 -3.3 -28.4 31.5 31.4 76.5 -2.52 46.8 44.0
Aubrey Treadwell - 15 23.5 3.9 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.1 1.1 5.1 2.2 -62 -3.6 -20.2 24.7 15.8 62.5 -2.12 33.7 28.6
Alivia McCulla - 17 17.7 3.7 5.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 4.0 6.7 31 1.6 16.6 42.6 0.0 27.8 -2.45 41.5 42.6
Cristina Luquin - 7 9.4 3.4 4.0 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.0 - - - 45.0 37.5 42.9 - 52.0 52.5
Lauren Sandstrom - 17 15.3 2.9 4.0 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 3.6 5.0 -52 -2.6 -20.3 33.9 14.3 83.3 -2.51 37.9 35.5
Julia Wright - 17 11.5 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 2.5 2.6 85 4.2 98.9 38.1 24.1 75.0 1.01 49.4 46.4
Averi Porter - 8 21.3 2.0 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.2 145 6.6 31.8 21.2 12.5 50.0 1.99 23.6 22.7
Hayley Numrich - 9 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 32 2.9 281.3 0.0 0.0 0 0.31 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG