Rochester (NY)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 927 (#498) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1044 (#283) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 953 (#596) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +2.2 (#95) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.7 (#305) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.376 (#549) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.482 (#356) | AdjNet -0.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.478 (#356) | AdjNet -0.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.488 (#358) | AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 75.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.606 (#208) | AdjO 81.3 | AdjD 76.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.570 (#340) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.565 (#346) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 995 (#371) | RD 115 | GP 19 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Cortland | W | 74 - 69 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Buffalo St. | W | 94 - 56 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Utica | W | 103 - 80 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | St. John Fisher | W | 86 - 68 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Nazareth | W | 87 - 73 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Hobart | L | 88 - 97 |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | Ithaca | W | 104 - 95 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Middlebury | W | 79 - 77 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ | Bowdoin | L | 70 - 72 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Eastern | L | 70 - 74 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | RIT | L | 83 - 87 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Emory | L | 90 - 95 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | NYU | L | 54 - 66 |
| 2026-01-18 | @ | Brandeis | L | 70 - 87 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Carnegie Mellon | W | 96 - 82 |
| 2026-01-25 | vs | CWRU | W | 97 - 88 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | UChicago | L | 63 - 72 |
| 2026-02-01 | @ | WashU | L | 78 - 89 |
| 2026-02-06 | vs | UChicago | L | 78 - 88 |
| 2026-02-08 | vs | WashU | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Fauss | - | 1 | 35.4 | 29.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 29.0 | 118 | 7.9 | 30.5 | 57.9 | 62.5 | 100.0 | 4.67 | 72.9 | 71.1 |
| Ben Pearce | - | 1 | 37.4 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 24.0 | 66 | 3.7 | 11.7 | 46.2 | 0.0 | 83.3 | 0.78 | 60.2 | 46.2 |
| Corvin Oprea | - | 17 | 30.7 | 17.6 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 17 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 43.8 | 36.9 | 78.4 | 4.59 | 58.7 | 53.2 |
| Ray Cuevas | - | 1 | 38.0 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 20 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 3.49 | 67.2 | 55.0 |
| Tomiwa Adetosoye | - | 16 | 31.5 | 16.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 12.2 | 15.5 | 31 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 44.4 | 31.0 | 76.9 | 2.08 | 54.6 | 46.7 |
| Mario Awasum | - | 1 | 33.6 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 21.0 | 83 | 4.4 | 22.7 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 0.33 | 70.7 | 70.0 |
| AJ Harris | - | 1 | 22.8 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 114 | 6.0 | 24.9 | 55.6 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 0.67 | 63.6 | 61.1 |
| Jordan Owusu | - | 17 | 24.1 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 57 | 3.2 | 11.8 | 44.1 | 40.0 | 85.2 | 1.67 | 55.2 | 52.2 |
| Justin Odibo | - | 17 | 28.3 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | -64 | -3.6 | -12.3 | 40.7 | 38.0 | 73.7 | -3.58 | 53.6 | 52.1 |
| Sam Henderson | - | 7 | 23.2 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 6.4 | 12.7 | -22 | -3.1 | -24.1 | 55.6 | 50.0 | 78.9 | 0.64 | 69.3 | 65.6 |
| Spencer Hall | - | 1 | 19.4 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 13 | 0.7 | 5.3 | 55.6 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.89 | 50.6 | 55.6 |
| Ian Murray | - | 1 | 27.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | -75 | -3.6 | -21.4 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 0 | -0.25 | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Kevin Reeves | - | 1 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 30 | 1.9 | 11.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 75.0 | 0.23 | 58.0 | 50.0 |
| Henry Morrison | - | 1 | 17.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | -13 | -0.8 | -58.8 | 75.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.68 | 69.4 | 75.0 |
| Mark Newell | - | 1 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | -38 | -1.8 | -15.7 | 75.0 | 0 | 66.7 | -3.28 | 75.2 | 75.0 |
| Theo Murray | - | 16 | 17.2 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 11 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 51.7 | 36.4 | 69.2 | -0.37 | 58.7 | 56.2 |
| Ben Chilson | - | 1 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 26 | 2.9 | 82.8 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 2.24 | 47.0 | 42.9 |
| Nolan Bessire | - | 1 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | -19 | -1.4 | -6.8 | 75.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -1.0 | 71.7 | 75.0 |
| Justas Bardauskas | - | 1 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 59.5 | 60.0 |
| John Mayhew | - | 17 | 19.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 7 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 42.9 | 38.2 | 83.3 | 2.66 | 53.6 | 50.0 |
| Jair Knight | - | 1 | 38.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | -2.0 | 81 | 4.3 | 18.2 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.57 | 20.3 | 15.4 |
| Dominic Ducree | - | 1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 | -21 | -2.6 | -7.7 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.84 | 32.2 | 25.0 |
| Jackson McKersie | - | 1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 66.7 | 1.99 | 56.4 | 50.0 |
| Justin Fuerbacher | - | 1 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0.0 | -1.77 | 38.8 | 41.7 |
| Donovan Lee | - | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -9 | -0.5 | -11.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -0.86 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Edward Witherington | - | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | -15 | -0.8 | -4.9 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 2.8 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Bernard Dushie Jr. | - | 17 | 10.8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 15 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 35.7 | 11.1 | 45.0 | 0.64 | 39.4 | 36.9 |
| Luke Razi | - | 16 | 12.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 5 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 51.7 | 50.0 | 83.3 | -0.01 | 58.5 | 55.2 |
| Nate Beitel | - | 6 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | -10 | -3.3 | -45.3 | 38.5 | 11.1 | 100.0 | -0.2 | 46.8 | 42.3 |
| Camden Fleming | - | 8 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -15 | -2.1 | -12.2 | 55.6 | 20.0 | 100.0 | -1.12 | 63.6 | 61.1 |
| Malachi Moore | - | 6 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | -0.3 | -2 | -0.4 | -4.9 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.64 | 27.6 | 20.0 |
| M.J. Young | - | 11 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -4 | -0.4 | -2.5 | 44.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.3 | 44.4 | 44.4 |
| Tariq Bridges | - | 3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | -9 | -4.5 | -41.9 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.09 | 11.8 | 12.5 |
| Savvas Gonatas | - | 10 | 6.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | -19 | -2.1 | -58.4 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.16 | 22.5 | 25.0 |
| John Coppolino IV | - | 1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 25 | 1.7 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Eli Fauss | - | 1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7 | -0.4 | -14.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.16 | 0 | 0 |
| Harris Jackson | - | 1 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 39 | 2.1 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Will Otto | - | 1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 | -0.2 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Thomas | - | 1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14 | 1.2 | 40.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Labkon | - | 3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -2 | -2.0 | -11.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.47 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Langston Woods | - | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2 | 2.0 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG