Pitt.-Johnstown
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 984 (#216) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1059 (#154) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1003 (#262) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +7.2 (#134) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +5.6 (#233) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.439 (#373) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.966 (#146) | NetEff +30.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.476 (#428) | AdjNet -0.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.476 (#428) | AdjNet -0.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.488 (#429) | AdjO 79.1 | AdjD 79.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.584 (#170) | AdjO 78.9 | AdjD 75.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.639 (#201) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.620 (#210) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1061 (#162) | RD 99 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Lincoln (PA) | L | 73 - 75 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Concord | W | 79 - 75 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | D'Youville | W | 85 - 72 |
| 2025-11-23 | @ | Ashland | L | 79 - 87 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Point Park | W | 92 - 75 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Davis & Elkins | W | 92 - 71 |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | Penn St.-Gr Allegheny | W | 99 - 57 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | West Chester | L | 72 - 81 |
| 2025-12-08 | vs | West Va. Wesleyan | W | 113 - 84 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Bloomsburg | W | 99 - 71 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | East Stroudsburg | W | 83 - 79 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | Kutztown | W | 79 - 67 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Millersville | L | 68 - 87 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Shepherd | L | 62 - 66 |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | Indiana (PA) | L | 70 - 80 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Slippery Rock | L | 68 - 82 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Edinboro | W | 82 - 68 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Clarion | L | 79 - 84 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Gannon | L | 86 - 112 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Seton Hill | W | 97 - 88 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | California (PA) | L | 68 - 79 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Slippery Rock | L | 67 - 85 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baden Forup | - | 22 | 30.1 | 19.2 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 13.3 | 18.5 | 34 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | -1.13 | 65.0 | 63.0 |
| Jay Rose | - | 16 | 23.7 | 16.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 20 | 1.2 | 15.3 | 52.4 | 42.6 | 74.1 | 0.2 | 62.9 | 60.2 |
| Vinnie Cugini | - | 21 | 28.3 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 55 | 2.6 | 13.1 | 47.7 | 39.3 | 79.6 | -0.67 | 56.2 | 52.8 |
| Adam Bilinsky | - | 22 | 30.3 | 11.8 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 52 | 2.4 | 11.6 | 54.8 | 35.7 | 73.5 | -2.22 | 62.6 | 60.2 |
| Will Kromka | - | 21 | 27.0 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 94 | 4.5 | 22.8 | 45.8 | 37.9 | 72.3 | 2.69 | 59.0 | 55.3 |
| Cedric Rault | - | 20 | 24.8 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 75 | 3.8 | 19.3 | 43.9 | 26.3 | 69.8 | -1.09 | 51.7 | 46.4 |
| Ryan Calo | - | 21 | 21.3 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 24 | 1.1 | 8.1 | 47.9 | 45.0 | 68.8 | -1.52 | 55.9 | 52.6 |
| Nick Watts | - | 22 | 12.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 44 | 2.0 | 22.1 | 46.8 | 25.0 | 73.1 | -1.86 | 55.1 | 50.0 |
| Adam Barton | - | 6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 12 | 2.0 | 533.3 | 45.5 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0.74 | 54.7 | 54.5 |
| Marcel Finkley | - | 8 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 45.5 | 33.3 | 55.6 | -0.01 | 56.8 | 54.5 |
| Nate Sprajcar | - | 7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | -8 | -1.1 | -95.5 | 77.8 | 0 | 0 | -0.41 | 77.8 | 77.8 |
| Noah Prosser | - | 8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 23 | 2.9 | 123.8 | 28.6 | 25.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 39.3 | 39.3 |
| Tanner Barkley | - | 7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | -6 | -0.9 | -77.4 | 37.5 | 40.0 | 0 | -0.43 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Keegan Smetanka | - | 9 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | -1 | -0.1 | -1.1 | 26.7 | 16.7 | 50.0 | 1.19 | 31.5 | 30.0 |
| Craig Jarvis | - | 6 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2 | 0.3 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG