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Phoenix Mercury

Also known as: Phoenix Mercury
Program History

Model Outputs

2025 latest available
Catalog

No materialized model snapshot for 2026 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1087 (#5) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1085 (#4) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +45 elo More → 1037 (#5) HCA +45 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.6 More → +8.7 (#6) HCA +2.6
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → +6.2 (#6) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.585 (#7) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +2.5 More → 0.585 (#7) NetEff +2.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +9.0 More → 0.780 (#5) AdjNet +9.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.3 More → 0.787 (#5) AdjNet +9.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 85.6 | AdjD 78.8 More → 0.651 (#6) AdjO 85.6 | AdjD 78.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.7 | AdjD 79.9 More → 0.565 (#5) AdjO 82.7 | AdjD 79.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.656 (#5) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.640 (#5) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 67 | GP 57 More → 1073 (#5) RD 67 | GP 57

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-04-25 vs Chicago Sky - Preview

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.