Penn St.-Lehigh Val.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 891 (#539) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 799 (#585) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 886 (#689) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -29.2 (#510) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -33.0 (#769) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.043 (#766) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.011 (#770) | AdjNet -38.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.011 (#772) | AdjNet -38.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.071 (#766) | AdjO 60.2 | AdjD 88.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.205 (#734) | AdjO 61.8 | AdjD 76.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.105 (#748) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.112 (#748) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 680 (#619) | RD 203 | GP 4 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | @ | Rutgers-Camden | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Neumann | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-05 | @ | Cairn | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Valley Forge | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Earl | - | 1 | 40.0 | 30.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 30.0 | 17.0 | 18 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 36.7 | 10.0 | 50.0 | -0.01 | 41.5 | 38.3 |
| Donte Dupriest | - | 1 | 34.3 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 47 | 2.4 | 9.6 | 52.9 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.92 | 53.5 | 52.9 |
| Cherif Kanoute | - | 1 | 34.0 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 19.0 | - | - | - | 46.2 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 0.69 | 54.7 | 46.2 |
| Ronald Ayers | - | 1 | 20.9 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 207 | 11.5 | 69.3 | 77.8 | 66.7 | 0 | -0.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Jaylon Simpson | - | 1 | 20.9 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 201 | 8.7 | 66.7 | 77.8 | 66.7 | 0 | -1.76 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Denzel Pierre | - | 1 | 27.3 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | -19 | -1.1 | -9.8 | 36.4 | 28.6 | 100.0 | -1.94 | 58.7 | 45.5 |
| Cameron Downs | - | 1 | 35.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | -76 | -5.4 | -16.5 | 41.7 | 0.0 | 62.5 | -2.25 | 48.3 | 41.7 |
| Aiden Littleton | - | 1 | 18.9 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | -58 | -5.8 | -39.5 | 85.7 | 0 | 100.0 | -3.14 | 87.4 | 85.7 |
| Byron Gaskins | - | 1 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 9 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 57.1 | 60.0 | 0 | -0.97 | 78.6 | 78.6 |
| Izaiah Johnson Young-El | - | 1 | 40.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 31 | 1.6 | 7.5 | 44.4 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0.31 | 46.5 | 44.4 |
| Julian Phillips | - | 1 | 34.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 33.3 | -2.28 | 53.6 | 56.2 |
| William Lawder | - | 1 | 26.2 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | -3 | -0.2 | -1.2 | 66.7 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.43 | 69.9 | 66.7 |
| Isaiah Reece | - | 1 | 33.4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 76 | 4.5 | 40.7 | 42.9 | 0 | 60.0 | 2.84 | 48.9 | 42.9 |
| Liam Carey | - | 1 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | -4 | -0.5 | -14.5 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -2.84 | 58.1 | 58.3 |
| Luke Cughan | - | 1 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 15 | 2.5 | 91.6 | 50.0 | 66.7 | 0 | - | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Miles Johnson | - | 1 | 24.9 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 27 | 1.4 | 89.4 | 40.0 | 0 | 0 | 2.25 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Jonathan Hardy | - | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Ryan Senft | - | 1 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -34 | -2.6 | -15.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.61 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Andre Burrell Jr | - | 1 | 15.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 69.4 | 100.0 |
| Tristan Hatcher | - | 1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2 | 0.3 | 39.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 61.5 | 50.0 |
| Ariel Trejo | - | 1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7 | 1.4 | 300.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 61.5 | 50.0 |
| Michael Broady | - | 1 | 13.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | -68 | -5.2 | -210.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -3.98 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Deven Dowdie | - | 1 | 27.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 15 | 0.8 | 9.6 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.41 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Emeer Coombs | - | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 31 | 2.6 | 23.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.11 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Aaron Lewis | - | 1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -25 | -1.8 | -29.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.35 | 0 | 0 |
| CJ Miles | - | 1 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -19 | -1.3 | -7.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -2.32 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Aarick Salata | - | 1 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 13 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.83 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Owen Denton | - | 1 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -3 | -0.8 | -30.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.28 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Isaiah Frazier | - | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | -6.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Chris Hill | - | 1 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 142 | 10.1 | 218.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.47 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jonathan Desir | - | 1 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 127 | 7.9 | 192.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.86 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Corey Baldwin | - | 1 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 183 | 9.2 | 137.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 3.52 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Donne Midamba | - | 1 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ace Branham | - | 1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -68 | -6.2 | -189.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -6.39 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jason Brice | - | 1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 | -47 | -2.8 | -44.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -4.04 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Christian Metivia | - | 1 | 21.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG