Penn St.-Behrend
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1084 (#90) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1114 (#118) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1101 (#94) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.1 (#161) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.0 (#369) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.954 (#198) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.834 (#205) | NetEff +11.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.642 (#327) | AdjNet +5.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.643 (#326) | AdjNet +4.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.593 (#307) | AdjO 70.3 | AdjD 66.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.681 (#142) | AdjO 72.3 | AdjD 63.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.567 (#320) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.592 (#303) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1128 (#123) | RD 183 | GP 5 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Pitt.-Bradford | W | 114 - 39 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Carlow | W | 90 - 59 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Alfred St. | W | 72 - 67 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Pitt.-Greensburg | W | 103 - 47 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Hilbert | W | 90 - 34 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Altavilla | - | 4 | 28.4 | 20.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 12.2 | 15.0 | 171 | 10.7 | 40.0 | 53.1 | 44.4 | 84.6 | 5.46 | 67.8 | 61.2 |
| Julia Balaski | - | 4 | 25.4 | 16.8 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 14.8 | 193 | 10.2 | 53.5 | 62.2 | 50.0 | 72.7 | 2.02 | 71.8 | 68.9 |
| Alaina Fabin | - | 4 | 21.3 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 218 | 11.5 | 56.1 | 54.3 | 37.5 | 42.9 | 2.81 | 57.0 | 57.6 |
| Madilyn Boyer | - | 2 | 18.1 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 13 | 1.3 | 5.6 | 52.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.88 | 61.8 | 61.8 |
| Emma Marstellar | - | 4 | 20.3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 177 | 9.3 | 78.3 | 40.0 | 7.7 | 88.9 | 4.61 | 46.6 | 41.2 |
| Lilly Palladino | - | 4 | 24.3 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 190 | 10.0 | 55.4 | 43.5 | 12.5 | 83.3 | 3.3 | 54.8 | 45.7 |
| Chloe Yazembiak | - | 3 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | -3 | -0.3 | -3.7 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 0 | -2.75 | 62.5 | 62.5 |
| Grace McQuiston | - | 4 | 19.3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 148 | 9.9 | 85.9 | 43.8 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 2.3 | 51.0 | 46.9 |
| Jillian Soder | - | 4 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 16 | 1.1 | 10.0 | 30.0 | 50.0 | 62.5 | -2.94 | 44.4 | 35.0 |
| Addy Landowski | - | 3 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 19 | 1.3 | 15.7 | 30.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | -3.57 | 36.8 | 35.0 |
| Ella Garrity | - | 4 | 20.9 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 8.2 | 95 | 5.6 | 34.6 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.55 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| Payton Leandro | - | 3 | 7.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -0.7 | 3 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.31 | 7.3 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG