🐻⬇️🏀

Penn St.-Altoona

Also known as: Penn St.-Altoona
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 983 (#269) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1004 (#324) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1062 (#149) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -10.3 (#292) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -10.5 (#504) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.564 (#426) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +5.3 More → 0.677 (#288) NetEff +5.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.4 More → 0.070 (#569) AdjNet -22.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -23.7 More → 0.059 (#577) AdjNet -23.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 56.8 | AdjD 72.1 More → 0.199 (#584) AdjO 56.8 | AdjD 72.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.9 | AdjD 61.5 More → 0.464 (#441) AdjO 59.9 | AdjD 61.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.354 (#493) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.384 (#474) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 107 | GP 21 More → 1039 (#266) RD 107 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ East. Mennonite W 64 - 62
2025-11-12 vs Gettysburg L 45 - 72
2025-11-13 vs Juniata W 77 - 73
2025-11-17 @ Penn College L 61 - 68
2025-11-21 @ Alfred W 67 - 62
2025-11-25 vs Lycoming W 69 - 49
2025-12-03 vs Pitt.-Greensburg W 64 - 39
2025-12-13 vs Penn St.-Behrend L 64 - 70
2025-12-20 @ Waynesburg L 61 - 74
2025-12-30 @ Lock Haven L 51 - 56
2026-01-10 vs Alfred St. W 77 - 57
2026-01-14 vs Carlow W 79 - 51
2026-01-17 @ La Roche L 64 - 72
2026-01-21 @ Mount Aloysius W 61 - 58
2026-01-28 @ Pitt.-Bradford W 89 - 51
2026-01-31 vs Hilbert W 85 - 39
2026-02-02 vs Pitt.-Bradford W 102 - 53
2026-02-04 vs Carlow W 80 - 38
2026-02-07 vs La Roche W 61 - 54

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lanie Wilt - 17 31.1 16.6 4.5 3.6 2.4 0.3 2.1 15.2 10.0 157 11.2 51.0 36.7 35.6 74.1 2.68 47.9 42.9
Avana Sayles - 19 30.9 15.4 10.1 2.1 2.3 1.6 2.0 17.1 12.4 123 7.7 36.6 41.2 0.0 59.5 3.19 42.7 41.2
Jaidyn McCracken - 19 30.1 11.2 5.5 2.3 2.3 0.3 1.7 11.7 8.1 141 8.8 42.0 37.2 29.4 76.9 1.11 46.6 45.5
Madison Rusnica - 15 26.2 9.1 4.1 2.9 1.5 0.3 1.3 9.0 7.7 56 4.0 33.4 34.8 21.1 71.4 2.12 43.8 37.8
Allyana Stephens - 19 11.9 5.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 5.6 1.8 15 1.0 8.9 31.1 29.5 37.5 2.1 43.4 43.4
Abigail McAlexander - 5 13.7 4.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.2 2.2 4.8 0.0 10 2.0 18.2 37.5 20.0 100.0 -0.93 43.0 41.7
Halle Kuzminski - 19 20.9 3.6 6.7 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 3.3 9.3 124 7.3 63.9 45.2 0 81.2 2.02 50.0 45.2
Ellie Irvin - 19 18.2 3.6 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 1.2 4.8 1.3 88 5.5 39.1 29.7 24.1 50.0 4.33 37.5 37.4
Haley Hicks - 19 14.1 3.4 4.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.5 3.3 5.5 49 3.1 22.4 46.0 0 54.5 2.49 47.2 46.0
Elizabeth Painter - 8 8.7 2.2 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.9 0.0 -16 -3.2 -14.9 19.4 21.4 0.0 -3.88 28.2 29.0
Skylar McCall - 7 9.8 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.4 1.0 9 3.0 118.7 29.4 25.0 30.0 -0.55 32.7 32.4
Addi Schirato - 17 9.8 1.7 2.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 3.1 0 0.0 0.0 38.7 0.0 45.5 -2.18 40.5 38.7
Addy Nardolillo - 7 6.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.4 0.3 -8 -2.0 -12.4 23.5 25.0 0 -1.8 26.5 26.5
Hannah Glunt - 8 7.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 0.9 -16 -3.2 -18.6 14.3 16.7 100.0 -3.24 26.9 21.4
Infiniti Lewis - 2 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Jess Burns - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG