Pacific Lutheran
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 807 (#471) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 744 (#561) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 888 (#624) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -15.2 (#324) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.6 (#515) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.176 (#594) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.039 (#529) | NetEff -24.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.242 (#473) | AdjNet -9.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.235 (#471) | AdjNet -10.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.360 (#470) | AdjO 56.4 | AdjD 62.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.287 (#614) | AdjO 57.8 | AdjD 67.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.216 (#583) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.219 (#590) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 788 (#496) | RD 139 | GP 6 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Whitman | L | 50 - 89 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Whitworth | L | 65 - 73 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Lewis & Clark | W | 78 - 58 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | George Fox | L | 45 - 75 |
| 2026-02-03 | @ | Puget Sound | L | 42 - 84 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Willamette | L | 52 - 63 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Reisner | - | 6 | 30.7 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 11.5 | 4.3 | -208 | -10.9 | -40.3 | 44.9 | 23.1 | 83.3 | -0.94 | 56.6 | 49.3 |
| Ghadir Ramadan | - | 6 | 23.0 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 9.8 | -114 | -6.3 | -33.3 | 51.4 | 0.0 | 65.8 | -1.34 | 59.0 | 51.4 |
| Lilli Williams | - | 6 | 31.0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 9.8 | 2.2 | -185 | -11.6 | -35.6 | 35.6 | 25.0 | 58.3 | -3.51 | 40.4 | 38.1 |
| Emi Wada | - | 6 | 36.2 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | -192 | -10.1 | -32.5 | 44.7 | 46.7 | 85.7 | -1.12 | 57.2 | 53.9 |
| Kylie Griffin | - | 4 | 25.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | -57 | -3.6 | -17.8 | 36.7 | 16.7 | 62.5 | 1.3 | 41.8 | 38.3 |
| Kate Wooten | - | 6 | 23.5 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.8 | -170 | -8.9 | -37.1 | 50.0 | 20.0 | 100.0 | -1.55 | 58.2 | 52.8 |
| Kristie Kagawa | - | 5 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | -1.6 | -58 | -5.8 | -48.1 | 27.3 | 16.7 | 0 | -3.51 | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| Ava Bright | - | 6 | 15.4 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | -93 | -4.9 | -33.8 | 18.2 | 0 | 66.7 | 0.36 | 29.3 | 18.2 |
| Kiley McMahon | - | 6 | 9.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.8 | -1.3 | -102 | -6.0 | -57.0 | 17.6 | 11.1 | 0 | -3.12 | 20.6 | 20.6 |
| Chloe Betts | - | 5 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | -67 | -4.5 | -52.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 60.0 | -1.81 | 24.2 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG