PaceModel Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1021 (#159) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1025 (#223) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1041 (#139) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.2 (#195) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.9 (#276) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.760 (#179) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.867 (#208) | NetEff +16.8 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.780 (#246) | AdjNet +11.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.781 (#250) | AdjNet +10.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.654 (#271) | AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 65.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.556 (#206) | AdjO 63.1 | AdjD 60.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.605 (#226) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.607 (#222) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1081 (#138) | RD 95 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Molloy | W | 83 - 57 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Queens (NY) | L | 59 - 65 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | American Int'l | W | 62 - 51 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Staten Island | W | 55 - 54 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Assumption | L | 64 - 75 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | American Int'l | W | 71 - 61 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Wilmington (DE) | L | 71 - 78 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Georgian Court | W | 79 - 71 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Queens (NY) | W | 72 - 67 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Bridgeport | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Jefferson | L | 82 - 86 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs | Franklin Pierce | W | 78 - 46 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Southern Conn. St. | W | 56 - 47 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Saint Anselm | L | 41 - 57 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Adelphi | L | 53 - 56 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Saint Michael's | L | 68 - 75 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Bentley | W | 53 - 49 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Southern N.H. | W | 68 - 60 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | American Int'l | L | 59 - 63 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Franklin Pierce | W | 49 - 46 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Southern Conn. St. | W | 60 - 56 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Saint Anselm | W | 69 - 66 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Kealey | - | 21 | 32.9 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 9.3 | 13.1 | 78 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 53.1 | 16.7 | 58.7 | -0.38 | 56.2 | 53.3 |
| Paxton Davidson | - | 21 | 33.6 | 12.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 88 | 4.4 | 17.3 | 42.8 | 41.8 | 57.1 | 3.13 | 55.3 | 54.7 |
| Jabari Nurse | - | 21 | 34.8 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 61 | 2.7 | 13.0 | 36.7 | 26.1 | 76.0 | 0.56 | 47.5 | 41.9 |
| Saif Saleh | - | 21 | 17.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 14 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 47.4 | 26.7 | 68.9 | 1.85 | 54.4 | 49.5 |
| Jayden James | - | 21 | 22.0 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 8 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 44.8 | 12.5 | 48.9 | 0.05 | 47.3 | 45.7 |
| Ben Manuel | - | 21 | 16.0 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | -5 | -0.2 | -1.5 | 44.1 | 17.6 | 56.2 | -0.12 | 47.8 | 45.6 |
| Ethan Robertson | - | 18 | 15.6 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 16 | 0.9 | 13.0 | 40.3 | 28.6 | 61.9 | -0.73 | 47.4 | 44.4 |
| David Dix | - | 20 | 14.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | -13 | -0.7 | -4.8 | 36.1 | 30.0 | 68.4 | -1.68 | 47.6 | 43.4 |
| Nathan Robertson | - | 19 | 16.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 39 | 1.9 | 23.1 | 36.4 | 35.3 | 72.7 | -0.57 | 43.8 | 40.9 |
| Bryce Aierstok | - | 2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -2 | -2.0 | -56.5 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.22 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Promise Opurum | - | 7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.0 | 33.1 | 66.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.91 | 51.5 | 66.7 |
| Jake Palluzzi | - | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Chiacchia | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Gaccione | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG