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Ozarks (AR)

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Ozarks (AR)
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 927 (#372) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 914 (#448) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 958 (#553) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -3.5 (#231) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -5.2 (#433) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.367 (#511) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -5.3 More → 0.342 (#405) NetEff -5.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -6.9 More → 0.312 (#444) AdjNet -6.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -7.3 More → 0.298 (#446) AdjNet -7.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 66.2 More → 0.390 (#448) AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 66.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 66.3 More → 0.450 (#482) AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 66.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.357 (#491) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.375 (#481) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 94 | GP 21 More → 916 (#404) RD 94 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Hanover L 73 - 86
2025-11-08 vs Westminster (MO) W 84 - 66
2025-11-14 vs Southwestern (TX) L 50 - 62
2025-11-18 vs East Tex. Baptist L 51 - 69
2025-11-22 @ Lyon W 107 - 76
2025-11-30 vs Rhodes W 84 - 78
2025-12-09 vs Lyon W 84 - 71
2025-12-20 vs Howard Payne W 63 - 60
2025-12-30 @ Millsaps L 69 - 81
2026-01-11 @ Concordia (TX) L 74 - 87
2026-01-16 vs St. Thomas (TX) L 65 - 68
2026-01-18 vs Colorado Col. L 51 - 75
2026-01-22 @ Austin L 50 - 63
2026-01-30 @ Schreiner W 70 - 56
2026-02-01 @ McMurry L 71 - 96
2026-02-03 @ Dallas W 69 - 52
2026-02-06 vs LeTourneau W 67 - 54
2026-02-07 vs Centenary (LA) W 74 - 41

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Abby Beene - 18 27.2 14.3 5.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 1.6 13.2 7.7 -27 -1.2 -5.7 41.8 30.4 76.3 1.27 50.8 48.3
Kennedi Wright - 11 27.2 11.4 5.4 1.7 0.6 1.2 2.1 11.2 7.0 -66 -4.7 -33.6 38.2 26.2 69.0 0.29 46.0 42.7
Lila Hartness - 18 26.6 10.8 3.9 2.3 1.4 0.1 2.1 7.4 9.1 -80 -3.8 -15.7 39.6 44.8 69.9 -0.92 56.9 50.7
Kennedi Wight - 7 21.7 10.0 5.9 2.0 1.7 0.0 2.4 9.4 7.7 25 3.6 8.1 33.3 20.0 87.5 1.99 45.7 37.1
Elli Garcia - 18 19.8 9.2 5.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.4 6.9 7.1 -5 -0.2 -1.4 53.6 50.0 55.6 4.68 55.5 54.0
Dalena Fisher - 18 13.5 7.7 3.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.3 6.0 4.7 8 0.4 3.3 39.8 29.8 76.0 1.94 53.1 46.3
Lili Garcia - 12 28.3 7.3 4.3 4.8 1.3 0.1 2.2 5.7 10.0 -17 -1.1 -7.4 42.6 33.3 74.1 -1.73 55.1 50.0
Courtney Thompson - 16 8.0 2.4 2.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 1.8 3.3 -28 -1.6 -11.3 42.9 0 62.5 -2.36 50.6 42.9
Nadia Smith - 16 14.2 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.0 15 0.8 5.8 21.7 28.6 62.5 0.27 33.9 28.3
Addison Pontiff - 14 12.1 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.4 -9 -0.5 -4.1 29.7 42.9 42.9 0.67 34.9 33.8
Madan Brooks - 18 11.6 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 2.6 0.2 -63 -3.0 -23.2 23.4 30.4 62.5 -3.54 33.7 30.9
Abby Sample - 11 4.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 -3 -0.3 -3.8 46.2 55.6 50.0 -0.77 63.9 65.4
Kennedy Jarrett - 12 11.3 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.8 -13 -1.0 -6.1 41.2 0.0 75.0 1.05 48.7 41.2
Lanie Moore - 16 6.7 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.4 -41 -2.2 -30.8 45.0 0 50.0 -2.6 47.8 45.0
Ayrielle Johnson - 9 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 2 0.2 5.0 66.7 50.0 0 1.02 75.0 75.0
Emalee Smith - 18 9.6 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 3 0.1 1.3 13.3 0.0 50.0 2.56 17.9 13.3
Caydence Kimball - 6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 -0.3 6 0.9 37.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 1.48 12.9 0.0
Sydney Brown - 4 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -1 -0.2 -33.8 0 0 0 0.46 0 0
MiriCole Baity - 1 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.03 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG