Ozarks (AR)
Also known as: Ozarks (AR)
Program History
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 797 (#617) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 782 (#604) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 856 (#718) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -16.1 (#329) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -22.1 (#700) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.274 (#617) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.198 (#541) | AdjNet -12.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.190 (#544) | AdjNet -12.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.300 (#546) | AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 77.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.213 (#730) | AdjO 63.4 | AdjD 77.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.119 (#731) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.128 (#730) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 742 (#590) | RD 143 | GP 17 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Southwestern (TX) | L | 57 - 65 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Webster | L | 64 - 76 |
| 2025-11-17 | @ | Rogers St. | L | 59 - 77 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Ark.-Fort Smith | L | 46 - 100 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Westminster (MO) | L | 58 - 63 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Webster | L | 69 - 96 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | Millsaps | W | 78 - 76 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Lyon | L | 53 - 70 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Lyon | L | 51 - 58 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Huntingdon | L | 56 - 101 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Millsaps | L | 74 - 89 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Hendrix | L | 62 - 69 |
| 2026-01-04 | @ | Hendrix | W | 83 - 61 |
| 2026-01-09 | @ | Texas Lutheran | L | 92 - 106 |
| 2026-01-11 | @ | Concordia (TX) | L | 69 - 98 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | St. Thomas (TX) | L | 41 - 57 |
| 2026-01-18 | vs | Colorado Col. | W | 85 - 72 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eyal Shamri | - | 14 | 23.8 | 14.8 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 11.9 | 6.0 | -31 | -1.8 | -12.4 | 47.3 | 38.2 | 76.7 | -0.46 | 57.4 | 55.1 |
| Dylan Archery | - | 17 | 32.2 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 9.5 | 7.1 | - | - | - | 38.3 | 34.6 | 71.9 | - | 52.0 | 49.4 |
| DJ MIller | - | 17 | 27.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | -134 | -6.7 | -40.5 | 38.2 | 22.7 | 61.8 | -1.57 | 45.3 | 41.4 |
| Vanya Nikolic | - | 16 | 25.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | -121 | -6.0 | -35.9 | 35.4 | 35.0 | 47.4 | -0.56 | 51.5 | 51.3 |
| Adam Lopez | - | 14 | 22.6 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5.8 | 8.6 | -64 | -3.6 | -22.3 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 78.7 | -0.51 | 53.1 | 43.8 |
| Donavan Darthard | - | 5 | 17.1 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 6.0 | 3.2 | - | - | - | 46.7 | 46.7 | 25.0 | - | 56.7 | 58.3 |
| Jaxon Hand | - | 15 | 15.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | -47 | -2.4 | -44.4 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 85.7 | -0.77 | 51.4 | 49.2 |
| Jagger Worley | - | 16 | 16.1 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 5.6 | -45 | -2.2 | -14.1 | 33.3 | 28.0 | 83.3 | -1.05 | 50.1 | 44.4 |
| Luke Proctor | - | 16 | 16.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | -68 | -4.5 | -2065.8 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 58.3 | -0.32 | 41.7 | 39.7 |
| Patrick Akoussan | - | 5 | 11.2 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 0.8 | - | - | - | 22.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 26.4 | 22.7 |
| Luca Davis | - | 5 | 20.4 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 0.8 | -34 | -2.3 | -13.4 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -2.21 | 18.0 | 15.4 |
| Roberto Brandao | - | 9 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 1 | 0.1 | 35.3 | 71.4 | 0 | 40.0 | 0.42 | 61.4 | 71.4 |
| Tyce Gentry | - | 11 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -0.2 | -43 | -2.9 | -24.4 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 0.0 | -3.58 | 32.1 | 32.7 |
| Dylan Ducharme | - | 14 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -27 | -1.7 | -29.8 | 31.6 | 0 | 77.8 | 0.6 | 41.4 | 31.6 |
| Liam Carrick | - | 4 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | - | 13.1 | 0.0 |
| Mateus Goncalo | - | 3 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -7 | -1.0 | -53.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG