Otterbein
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1066 (#113) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1247 (#33) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1187 (#31) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +24.1 (#18) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +17.9 (#132) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.604 (#404) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.948 (#130) | NetEff +20.8 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.825 (#256) | AdjNet +13.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.825 (#257) | AdjNet +13.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.671 (#260) | AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 56.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.824 (#45) | AdjO 64.5 | AdjD 47.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.883 (#74) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.882 (#70) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1264 (#37) | RD 103 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Anderson (IN) | W | 81 - 60 |
| 2025-11-10 | @ | Ohio Wesleyan | L | 62 - 72 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | La Roche | W | 80 - 54 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Alma | L | 46 - 54 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Adrian | W | 68 - 57 |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | Carnegie Mellon | W | 51 - 47 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Heidelberg | W | 92 - 40 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Marietta | W | 64 - 44 |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Wash. & Jeff. | W | 52 - 43 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Mount Aloysius | W | 69 - 32 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Capital | W | 74 - 54 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Ohio Northern | W | 77 - 43 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Muskingum | W | 85 - 54 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Wilmington (OH) | W | 74 - 42 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Baldwin Wallace | L | 52 - 67 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Mount Union | W | 64 - 53 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Marietta | W | 71 - 66 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Heidelberg | W | 59 - 26 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattie Walburn | - | 18 | 22.7 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 79 | 3.8 | 19.8 | 40.8 | 0.0 | 85.7 | -1.68 | 45.6 | 40.8 |
| Kyla Irby | - | 18 | 24.5 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 20 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 31.7 | 31.4 | 81.2 | -0.55 | 45.5 | 37.7 |
| Cameron Sparks | - | 18 | 21.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 126 | 6.0 | 36.4 | 46.3 | 0 | 76.5 | 2.13 | 52.1 | 46.3 |
| Kiara Hudgins | - | 18 | 29.0 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 102 | 4.9 | 26.6 | 32.9 | 16.1 | 69.8 | 1.44 | 38.8 | 34.4 |
| Abby Rawlings | - | 18 | 26.6 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 146 | 7.0 | 36.6 | 37.0 | 33.8 | 80.0 | 3.66 | 49.9 | 45.7 |
| Nicole Terry | - | 18 | 13.8 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 4.7 | -3 | -0.1 | -1.7 | 38.2 | 0.0 | 76.6 | 0.19 | 49.6 | 38.2 |
| Kadence Conley | - | 15 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 52 | 3.2 | 35.4 | 57.1 | 58.8 | 75.0 | 1.65 | 71.4 | 69.0 |
| Anna Waskiewicz | - | 18 | 16.8 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 106 | 5.0 | 46.2 | 52.2 | 25.0 | 35.7 | 2.87 | 52.6 | 53.7 |
| Madilyn Stechschulte | - | 17 | 17.0 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 55 | 2.8 | 20.7 | 34.5 | 22.2 | 38.1 | 0.88 | 37.4 | 36.4 |
| Kate Mosher | - | 18 | 10.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 91 | 4.3 | 66.6 | 48.6 | 0.0 | 61.5 | -0.08 | 53.8 | 48.6 |
| Abby Dickson | - | 10 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.1 | -0.6 | 3 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 28.6 | 18.8 | 0 | -1.54 | 35.7 | 35.7 |
| Ella Nagel | - | 7 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 33.3 | 0 | 66.7 | -1.71 | 43.0 | 33.3 |
| Ally Carr | - | 10 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 31 | 3.1 | 215.0 | 57.1 | 66.7 | 75.0 | -0.44 | 74.2 | 71.4 |
| Alexa Nisonger | - | 10 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 25 | 2.5 | 185.2 | 25.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.73 | 20.5 | 25.0 |
| JuJu Grubich | - | 1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Emma Crow | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -18 | -3.0 | -10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.02 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG