Old Dominion
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1019 (#212) | - |
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 899 (#451) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1030 (#227) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 952 (#347) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 933 (#578) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.6 (#134) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.2 (#312) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.999 (#42) | - |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.301 (#443) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#2) | NetEff +84.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.996 (#43) | AdjNet +48.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.516 (#402) | AdjNet +0.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.997 (#38) | AdjNet +49.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.534 (#399) | AdjNet +1.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.954 (#35) | AdjO 84.4 | AdjD 51.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.505 (#405) | AdjO 66.4 | AdjD 66.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.533 (#286) | AdjO 62.1 | AdjD 60.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.558 (#306) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.541 (#316) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 922 (#340) | RD 95 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Elizabeth City St. | W | 106 - 32 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Davenport | W | 68 - 49 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Grand Valley St. | L | 49 - 67 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Clarion | L | 57 - 77 |
| 2025-11-26 | @ | Wheeling | W | 55 - 43 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Ky. Wesleyan | L | 60 - 66 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Walsh | L | 52 - 66 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Cedarville | L | 65 - 68 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Cedarville | L | 41 - 107 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Miami-Hamilton | W | 87 - 52 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Adrian | W | 60 - 46 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Ashland | L | 61 - 71 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Lake Erie | W | 83 - 53 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Thomas More | L | 65 - 70 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Findlay | L | 63 - 64 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Malone | L | 52 - 63 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Northwood | L | 67 - 75 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Tiffin | W | 71 - 61 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Ky. Wesleyan | L | 57 - 64 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Cedarville | W | 58 - 53 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Hillsdale | L | 52 - 63 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simaru Fields | - | 1 | 22.5 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 16.7 | 75.0 | - | 59.5 | 55.0 |
| Jenna Shackleford | - | 17 | 27.4 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 10.3 | 8.6 | -50 | -2.5 | -11.9 | 44.6 | 20.0 | 76.7 | -1.48 | 51.6 | 46.3 |
| Sarah Ochs | - | 19 | 27.8 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 10.5 | 4.0 | -25 | -1.1 | -5.6 | 41.2 | 34.4 | 96.6 | -1.04 | 50.5 | 46.7 |
| JoLeigh Hamilton | - | 1 | 25.2 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 0 | 71.4 | - | 77.7 | 75.0 |
| Simone Cunningham | - | 1 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0 | 75.0 | - | 70.9 | 66.7 |
| Kelsey Thompson | - | 1 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 116 | 5.8 | 51.2 | 83.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.09 | 83.3 | 83.3 |
| Macy Chapman | - | 18 | 25.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 7.4 | 9.6 | -31 | -1.4 | -6.2 | 47.4 | 34.4 | 76.5 | -1.01 | 55.1 | 51.5 |
| Hama'ya Fielder | - | 1 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 37.5 | 37.5 | 0 | - | 56.2 | 56.2 |
| Riley Stack | - | 1 | 13.7 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Mariah Clayton | - | 1 | 16.8 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Mackenzie Hurd | - | 19 | 23.2 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 5.8 | 7.5 | -33 | -1.5 | -7.1 | 41.8 | 29.4 | 73.8 | 0.26 | 51.9 | 44.1 |
| Addison West | - | 1 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 59.5 | 50.0 |
| Laila Walker | - | 1 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 52.7 | 50.0 |
| Jaylen Ponder | - | 1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 87.5 | 87.5 |
| Jazmyn Wheeler | - | 18 | 17.8 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 41.3 | 23.1 | 71.4 | 2.8 | 46.9 | 44.0 |
| Alexis Dotson | - | 1 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Alisha Nunley | - | 1 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 87.2 | 83.3 |
| Nisaa Muhammad | - | 1 | 14.8 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Meghan Mayotte | - | 6 | 16.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 4.8 | -19 | -2.4 | -9.3 | 47.8 | 50.0 | 83.3 | -1.35 | 61.9 | 54.3 |
| Alayna Okulich | - | 1 | 20.1 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 47.0 | 25.0 |
| Nakiyah Allen | - | 1 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -37 | -3.1 | -198.2 | 66.7 | 0 | 20.0 | -0.4 | 48.1 | 66.7 |
| En'Dya Buford | - | 1 | 16.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Eve Schwemley | - | 19 | 16.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 34 | 1.5 | 11.5 | 47.1 | 39.0 | 90.9 | 1.83 | 61.5 | 58.6 |
| Gracie Cosgrove | - | 19 | 25.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | -64 | -2.9 | -14.3 | 30.8 | 29.3 | 50.0 | -2.17 | 43.1 | 42.9 |
| Jordyn Smoot | - | 1 | 21.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -5.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Dalanna Carter | - | 1 | 14.3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 41.0 | 25.0 |
| Nevaeh Scott | - | 1 | 17.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 106.4 | 100.0 |
| Lucy Porter | - | 8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 10 | 0.9 | 27.3 | 58.8 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 0.61 | 67.8 | 67.6 |
| Jenna Tripp | - | 1 | 16.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | -4.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0 | - | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Giselle Griego | - | 1 | 10.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -4.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Madelyn Fearon | - | 19 | 15.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | -25 | -1.1 | -6.7 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 73.3 | -0.63 | 36.1 | 31.2 |
| Brooke Nelson | - | 2 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| Halle Warner | - | 14 | 15.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | -50 | -2.9 | -23.9 | 22.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.02 | 27.0 | 22.6 |
| Elisha Smith | - | 1 | 18.4 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Taylor Scohy | - | 11 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 42.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 2.4 | 50.8 | 42.1 |
| T'anna Saddler | - | 1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 53.2 | 0.0 |
| Caris Risner | - | 1 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | -5.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amiyah Tull | - | 1 | 25.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | -8.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kiley Wray | - | 1 | 18.3 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Meg Saffell | - | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carly Nelson | - | 2 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG