Oberlin
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 943 (#344) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 974 (#364) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 877 (#632) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.9 (#138) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.0 (#431) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.416 (#486) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.055 (#518) | NetEff -19.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.652 (#322) | AdjNet +5.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.648 (#322) | AdjNet +5.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.562 (#324) | AdjO 62.4 | AdjD 59.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.382 (#555) | AdjO 56.1 | AdjD 61.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.364 (#486) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.352 (#503) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 881 (#433) | RD 103 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Carnegie Mellon | L | 50 - 53 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Penn St.-Behrend | L | 56 - 68 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Baldwin Wallace | L | 45 - 60 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Alma | W | 64 - 51 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | Claremont-M-S | L | 44 - 62 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Pomona-Pitzer | W | 63 - 53 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Wooster | W | 58 - 48 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Kalamazoo | W | 58 - 52 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Adrian | L | 48 - 66 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | CWRU | L | 55 - 68 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Stevenson | W | 70 - 57 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | DePauw | L | 63 - 69 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Denison | L | 56 - 93 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Wittenberg | L | 52 - 61 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | John Carroll | L | 40 - 83 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Kenyon | W | 67 - 57 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Ohio Wesleyan | L | 39 - 71 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Wooster | L | 57 - 60 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | DePauw | L | 42 - 69 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Altavilla | - | 1 | 35.3 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 171 | 10.7 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 81.8 | 5.46 | 65.3 | 54.2 |
| Madilyn Boyer | - | 1 | 25.4 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | 4.0 | 13 | 1.3 | 5.6 | 36.4 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0.88 | 39.3 | 40.9 |
| Lauren Vanderstelt | - | 1 | 38.6 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | -11 | -0.6 | -3.1 | 38.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.39 | 45.5 | 38.9 |
| Alaina Fabin | - | 1 | 31.3 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 218 | 11.5 | 56.1 | 58.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.81 | 58.3 | 58.3 |
| Ruby Hogan | - | 1 | 40.0 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 18.0 | 17.0 | -75 | -4.7 | -31.1 | 27.8 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.28 | 33.9 | 27.8 |
| Nicole Timko | - | 1 | 36.4 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 34 | 1.7 | 6.5 | 30.0 | 14.3 | 100.0 | 0.84 | 51.4 | 35.0 |
| Angela Kumler | - | 14 | 31.0 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 9.6 | 13.6 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 48.9 | 11.1 | 66.7 | 0.69 | 53.7 | 49.6 |
| Allie Heyer | - | 1 | 22.4 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 15 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 40.0 | 75.0 | 0 | -1.99 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| Csiszar, Katherine | - | 1 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | - | 34.2 | 25.0 |
| Lily Najmulski | - | 14 | 32.9 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 8.9 | 4.5 | -16 | -0.8 | -3.6 | 40.8 | 39.4 | 87.5 | -0.43 | 53.3 | 52.0 |
| Brittany Miller | - | 1 | 26.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | -67 | -4.8 | -289.7 | 20.0 | 33.3 | 66.7 | -0.68 | 35.6 | 25.0 |
| Gabby Peña-Hilzen | - | 14 | 24.8 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | -32 | -1.8 | -32.5 | 41.6 | 16.0 | 51.5 | -2.01 | 44.8 | 43.2 |
| Krystal Montas | - | 15 | 31.3 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 7.4 | -8 | -0.4 | -2.3 | 35.9 | 12.0 | 78.9 | 1.33 | 43.2 | 37.1 |
| Aleena Dinker | - | 1 | 32.5 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 52 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 83.3 | 1.9 | 70.9 | 50.0 |
| Savannah Gibbs | - | 1 | 34.4 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 20 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 22.2 | 0 | 66.7 | -0.98 | 29.1 | 22.2 |
| Ellie Pollock-Ballard | - | 15 | 26.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 7.6 | 0.0 | -26 | -1.4 | -12.2 | 27.2 | 26.2 | 100.0 | -0.7 | 37.0 | 36.4 |
| Anora Lee | - | 4 | 23.3 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 8 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 53.3 | 37.5 | 75.0 | 0.37 | 65.6 | 63.3 |
| Noa Brown | - | 15 | 22.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 6.3 | -0.7 | -13 | -0.6 | -5.4 | 23.2 | 26.8 | 60.0 | -0.39 | 32.7 | 31.1 |
| Anya Peper | - | 1 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 53 | 3.3 | 32.5 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -2.4 | 34.0 | 20.0 |
| Lilly Palladino | - | 1 | 29.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 190 | 10.0 | 55.4 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 29.1 | 33.3 |
| Shelby Lewis | - | 1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 75.0 | -1.2 | 39.9 | 0.0 |
| Nisha Musunuri | - | 1 | 14.3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 48 | 2.7 | 29.3 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 3.87 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Niyati Bangalore | - | 1 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.67 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Josee Cooke | - | 1 | 27.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | -42 | -2.6 | -40.3 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.41 | 21.8 | 16.7 |
| Ava Arias | - | 1 | 11.8 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 41 | 2.0 | 33.6 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -3.51 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Ella Garrity | - | 1 | 20.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 95 | 5.6 | 34.6 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.55 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Addy Landowski | - | 1 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 19 | 1.3 | 15.7 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -3.57 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Emma Marstellar | - | 1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 177 | 9.3 | 78.3 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 4.61 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Jillian Soder | - | 1 | 14.9 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 16 | 1.1 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.94 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Julia Balaski | - | 1 | 34.1 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 193 | 10.2 | 53.5 | 14.3 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.02 | 13.4 | 14.3 |
| Semaj' Robertson | - | 1 | 10.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -5.0 | -63 | -3.5 | -30.1 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.85 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Scarlett Hosner | - | 1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Taylor Dinda | - | 1 | 13.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 | -92 | -5.1 | -38.9 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.26 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| Elisabeth Wilks | - | 1 | 20.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -110 | -7.3 | -57.1 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.01 | 16.7 | 16.7 |
| Samantha Dormer | - | 12 | 13.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | -72 | -4.5 | -51.8 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 16.7 | -2.5 | 13.1 | 12.5 |
| Summer Wish | - | 10 | 8.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | -9 | -0.8 | -11.4 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.6 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| Camilla McDaniel | - | 8 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -14 | -1.8 | -56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.97 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Liv LaFond | - | 1 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 42 | 5.2 | 184.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anna Prouty | - | 1 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10 | 2.0 | 333.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Baney | - | 1 | 16.2 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 52 | 2.6 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.37 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Sophia Moir | - | 1 | 17.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | -30 | -1.7 | -11.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG