Northwestern-St. Paul
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1025 (#188) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 847 (#508) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 875 (#633) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -13.3 (#314) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -14.1 (#545) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.727 (#347) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.261 (#425) | NetEff -7.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.395 (#412) | AdjNet -3.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.389 (#411) | AdjNet -3.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.435 (#415) | AdjO 63.8 | AdjD 66.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.334 (#586) | AdjO 59.7 | AdjD 67.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.198 (#600) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.211 (#595) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 824 (#474) | RD 98 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Central (IA) | L | 56 - 67 |
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Hamline | L | 48 - 87 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Carleton | L | 51 - 61 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Augsburg | L | 60 - 70 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Macalester | L | 51 - 55 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Luther | L | 68 - 94 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Emmaus | W | 83 - 60 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | Gustavus Adolphus | L | 41 - 85 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Lasell | W | 75 - 62 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | UMass Boston | W | 72 - 64 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | North Central (MN) | L | 62 - 70 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Martin Luther | L | 47 - 71 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Minn.-Morris | L | 65 - 82 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Wis.-Superior | L | 42 - 61 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Crown (MN) | W | 62 - 56 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Martin Luther | L | 71 - 80 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Wis.-Superior | L | 54 - 63 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Minn.-Morris | L | 69 - 81 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lydia Schmitter | - | 7 | 28.5 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 12.4 | 11.3 | - | - | - | 47.1 | 23.1 | 64.5 | - | 52.2 | 48.9 |
| Ella Frazier | - | 18 | 31.5 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 9.6 | 4.7 | -124 | -5.9 | -36.5 | 41.3 | 29.9 | 72.0 | -2.03 | 50.0 | 48.0 |
| Emma Korinek | - | 17 | 24.6 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 9.3 | 6.3 | -92 | -4.6 | -30.4 | 39.2 | 31.3 | 80.0 | -0.46 | 50.8 | 47.5 |
| Carli Elrod | - | 18 | 28.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 9.4 | 6.9 | -98 | -4.7 | -31.8 | 34.7 | 16.1 | 62.7 | -0.38 | 42.1 | 37.6 |
| Marin Blom | - | 18 | 27.7 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 5.8 | -72 | -3.4 | -23.9 | 38.0 | 26.7 | 64.1 | -1.16 | 46.2 | 42.6 |
| Karley Loven | - | 17 | 15.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 5.6 | 2.4 | -41 | -2.0 | -24.6 | 33.7 | 28.8 | 63.2 | -0.41 | 45.0 | 42.6 |
| Brenna Vogel | - | 17 | 18.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | -21 | -1.1 | -12.6 | 25.8 | 27.1 | 56.5 | 1.06 | 36.3 | 33.1 |
| Katelyn Lindberg | - | 18 | 24.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 3.9 | -116 | -5.5 | -46.0 | 34.5 | 6.7 | 38.5 | -2.62 | 35.7 | 35.1 |
| Aubrey Langrehr | - | 14 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | -48 | -3.0 | -41.4 | 28.2 | 30.0 | 73.3 | -0.38 | 42.8 | 35.9 |
| Olivia Heikes | - | 18 | 10.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | -0.1 | -94 | -4.5 | -89.5 | 26.2 | 26.0 | 100.0 | -2.51 | 38.0 | 36.9 |
| Stella Multerer | - | 5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Emma Lair | - | 3 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Maddy Smith | - | 5 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 51 | 2.8 | 15.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Caroline West | - | 5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.8 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Reese Schmidt | - | 1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -231 | -12.8 | -43.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -2.78 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG