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Northwestern-St. Paul

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Northwestern-St. Paul
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 861 (#572) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 817 (#575) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 871 (#705) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -16.9 (#340) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -17.4 (#649) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.515 (#454) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -10.6 More → 0.228 (#507) AdjNet -10.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -10.9 More → 0.220 (#512) AdjNet -10.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 80.2 More → 0.322 (#514) AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 80.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 81.5 More → 0.295 (#674) AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 81.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.178 (#684) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.191 (#686) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 21 More → 822 (#536) RD 99 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Hamline L 84 - 99
2025-11-14 @ Lawrence L 67 - 72
2025-11-15 @ Lakeland W 90 - 82
2025-11-18 vs Macalester L 79 - 85
2025-11-22 @ St. Olaf L 75 - 85
2025-11-25 vs St. Scholastica L 55 - 71
2025-12-05 vs Maranatha Baptist W 93 - 82
2025-12-10 @ Wis.-Eau Claire L 63 - 79
2025-12-13 @ Carleton L 79 - 98
2025-12-16 vs Saint John's (MN) L 63 - 99
2025-12-20 @ Central (IA) L 72 - 91
2026-01-05 vs Augsburg L 55 - 87
2026-01-07 @ Bethany Lutheran L 69 - 70
2026-01-10 @ North Central (MN) L 77 - 84
2026-01-14 vs Martin Luther W 87 - 65
2026-01-17 vs Minn.-Morris W 88 - 79
2026-01-21 @ Wis.-Superior W 69 - 68
2026-01-24 vs Crown (MN) L 73 - 85
2026-01-31 @ Martin Luther L 72 - 89
2026-02-04 vs Wis.-Superior W 99 - 77
2026-02-07 @ Minn.-Morris L 74 - 84

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Japheth Nyamari - 18 35.3 21.2 5.8 1.6 1.3 0.2 1.7 18.2 10.3 -68 -3.8 -12.9 43.4 38.1 86.9 0.07 54.0 50.3
Noah Frazell - 15 30.2 14.4 3.7 1.3 1.1 0.5 1.3 12.5 7.2 -58 -3.9 -18.6 38.5 34.6 87.5 -1.64 52.8 48.4
Jacob Hoefs - 21 28.2 11.4 5.9 2.0 1.0 0.3 1.8 9.2 9.6 20 1.0 4.7 48.5 27.1 73.1 2.22 55.1 51.8
Will Foster - 18 25.5 9.9 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 1.7 8.4 8.2 -7 -0.4 -1.6 48.0 40.7 56.8 -1.4 52.9 51.6
AJ Greene - 21 28.6 9.5 3.9 2.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 10.0 6.4 -50 -2.4 -12.9 38.6 31.2 82.1 0.56 43.8 39.8
Mateo Cortes Weiss - 6 14.1 6.7 2.5 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.5 6.2 3.3 20 4.0 49.9 40.5 28.6 85.7 0.26 49.9 45.9
Jonah Burnett - 21 22.2 6.5 3.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 6.3 4.4 -55 -2.6 -23.4 37.9 22.9 78.8 -0.85 46.8 42.0
Ben Tschida - 20 20.2 4.2 3.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 4.8 3.6 -20 -1.0 -6.0 34.0 26.8 57.1 1.59 42.5 41.8
Isaac Aune - 16 16.1 3.1 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 2.8 4.6 10 0.6 9.5 43.2 37.5 0 -1.11 56.8 56.8
Blake Dalluge - 11 12.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.1 1 0.1 1.2 31.0 22.7 66.7 -1.56 42.7 39.7
Ethan Van Schepen - 8 5.5 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.6 -21 -3.0 -607.2 40.0 50.0 27.3 -0.26 40.4 45.0
Julius Frog - 5 4.4 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 - - - 50.0 0.0 0.0 - 46.6 50.0
Connor Raleigh - 5 2.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.2 -9 -1.8 -260.2 20.0 20.0 50.0 -0.26 34.0 30.0
Josh Sokeye - 3 2.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 2.0 -1.0 - - - 16.7 0.0 0 - 16.7 16.7
Samson Hagstrom - 9 3.9 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 -18 -2.2 -520.5 50.0 0 0 -0.26 50.0 50.0
Ty Roehm - 6 2.8 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 -17 -3.4 -491.6 50.0 0 0 -0.26 50.0 50.0
Cade Crutcher - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
David Darko - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Gage Greene - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Connor Hampton - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Zak Walters - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG