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Northwest Mo. St.

Season: 2026
Also known as: Northwest Mo. St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1013 (#318) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1073 (#199) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1020 (#290) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +13.8 (#174) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.984 (#160) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +12.1 More → 0.800 (#273) AdjNet +12.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +11.4 More → 0.794 (#276) AdjNet +11.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 63.7 More → 0.711 (#230) AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 63.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 60.6 More → 0.725 (#103) AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 60.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.717 (#199) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.709 (#201) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-17 vs Buena Vista - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.