🐻⬇️🏀

North Dakota St.

Season: 2026
Also known as: North Dakota St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1182 (#64) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1040 (#214) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +47.6 (#30) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 1.000 (#88) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +59.7 More → 0.999 (#66) NetEff +59.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +67.7 More → 1.000 (#22) AdjNet +67.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +67.2 More → 1.000 (#28) AdjNet +67.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 88.7 | AdjD 44.2 More → 0.983 (#23) AdjO 88.7 | AdjD 44.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.4 | AdjD 52.4 More → 0.920 (#11) AdjO 79.4 | AdjD 52.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.965 (#20) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.958 (#18) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 263 | GP 1 More → 1128 (#121) RD 263 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-10 vs Concordia-M'head W 84 - 60
2025-12-29 vs Saint Mary's (MN) W 94 - 36

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Avery Koenen - 2 20.5 17.5 4.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 8.5 17.5 - - - 76.5 0.0 90.0 - 81.8 76.5
Karrington Asp - 2 20.9 13.0 3.5 0.5 0.5 2.0 0.0 8.5 11.0 - - - 64.7 0 66.7 - 66.2 64.7
Jocelyn Schiller - 2 23.3 12.0 2.5 4.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 7.5 11.0 - - - 53.3 42.9 83.3 - 68.0 63.3
Marisa Frost - 2 26.1 11.5 3.0 4.5 4.0 0.5 1.5 8.5 13.5 - - - 52.9 20.0 100.0 - 61.3 55.9
Molly Lenz - 2 27.8 9.5 2.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 8.0 6.5 - - - 43.8 50.0 0 - 59.4 59.4
Abby Krzewinski - 2 21.8 9.0 3.5 2.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 6.5 10.5 - - - 61.5 50.0 0 - 69.2 69.2
Amelia Hobson - 2 18.9 5.5 4.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 6.0 4.5 - - - 33.3 20.0 100.0 - 44.2 41.7
Abby Graham - 1 20.7 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 - - - 33.3 33.3 0 - 41.7 41.7
Lily Niebuhr - 2 8.4 4.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 2.5 4.0 - - - 80.0 0 50.0 - 76.5 80.0
McKenna Johnson - 2 8.8 2.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 4.5 11 0.8 64.5 66.7 0 0 1.33 66.7 66.7
Miriley Simon - 2 6.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 3.5 -123 -11.2 -51.8 33.3 0 0 -0.32 33.3 33.3
Audrey Martinez-Stewart - 2 7.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.5 -1.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 0 - 20.0 20.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG