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North Dakota St.

Season: 2026 2025 2015
Also known as: North Dakota St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1077 (#133) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 996 (#304) HCA +95 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +26.0 (#31) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.973 (#90) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +33.4 More → 0.980 (#37) AdjNet +33.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +33.3 More → 0.980 (#39) AdjNet +33.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 89.1 | AdjD 63.0 More → 0.915 (#45) AdjO 89.1 | AdjD 63.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 84.0 | AdjD 72.2 More → 0.745 (#42) AdjO 84.0 | AdjD 72.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.838 (#40) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.818 (#42) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 307 | GP 2 More → 1131 (#92) RD 307 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-19 vs Jamestown W 82 - 67
2025-12-15 vs Minn.-Crookston W 101 - 67

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Markhi Strickland - 2 20.9 20.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 12.0 11.5 - - - 75.0 0 55.6 - 73.3 75.0
Noah Feddersen - 2 20.8 15.0 5.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 6.0 15.0 - - - 66.7 0.0 100.0 - 82.6 66.7
Trevian Carson - 2 20.5 11.5 6.5 1.0 3.0 0.0 1.5 7.0 13.5 - - - 57.1 33.3 75.0 - 65.6 60.7
Andy Stefonowicz - 2 27.4 9.5 3.0 4.5 2.5 0.0 1.5 5.5 12.5 - - - 63.6 60.0 100.0 - 80.0 77.3
Damari Wheeler-Thomas - 2 28.6 9.5 3.0 4.0 2.5 0.0 1.5 6.5 11.0 - - - 46.2 50.0 100.0 - 64.4 57.7
Treyson Anderson - 2 17.1 7.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.5 5.5 3.5 46 2.2 14.5 45.5 40.0 66.7 1.57 56.8 54.5
Emil Skytta - 1 13.4 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 - - - 50.0 100.0 50.0 - 60.8 62.5
Tay Smith - 2 19.8 6.0 1.5 3.5 4.0 0.0 1.0 5.5 8.5 135 7.1 88.3 36.4 33.3 100.0 1.01 50.5 45.5
Max Majerle - 2 7.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.0 - - - 100.0 100.0 0 - 116.7 116.7
Carson Smith - 2 13.8 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.5 -0.5 -9 -0.8 -16.1 33.3 0.0 0 -0.11 33.3 33.3
Riley Massey - 2 15.9 2.5 1.5 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 - - - 25.0 33.3 100.0 - 51.2 37.5
Riley Saunders - 2 0.9 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.5 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Caleb Schoenrock - 1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG