🐻⬇️🏀

Nobel

Season: 2026 2025
Also known as: Nobel
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 942 (#333) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 865 (#479) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 944 (#490) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -38.0 (#321) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -47.0 (#598) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.000 (#748) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -57.4 More → 0.001 (#765) AdjNet -57.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -57.4 More → 0.001 (#765) AdjNet -57.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.7 | AdjD 91.3 More → 0.029 (#761) AdjO 52.7 | AdjD 91.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.0 | AdjD 81.9 More → 0.120 (#599) AdjO 60.0 | AdjD 81.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.037 (#599) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.046 (#600) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 243 | GP 3 More → 799 (#458) RD 243 | GP 3

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-29 @ Cal St. San Marcos L 50 - 85
2025-12-13 @ Cal St. Dom. Hills L 32 - 98
2025-12-30 @ Azusa Pacific L 45 - 94

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Za-Ontay Boothman - 1 14.3 14.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 -24 -1.0 -7.3 62.5 66.7 0 -0.24 87.5 87.5
Max Tengan - 1 20.2 13.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 7.0 1 0.1 0.3 62.5 60.0 0 -0.57 81.2 81.2
Kaleb Taylor - 1 13.6 12.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 14.0 0 0.0 0.0 85.7 0 0 -0.76 85.7 85.7
Keavie Love - 1 19.7 12.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 9.0 14 0.9 3.2 57.1 100.0 100.0 2.14 76.1 71.4
Dexter Stratton - 1 17.3 12.0 6.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 8.0 -31 -1.9 -6.8 54.5 0.0 0.0 -0.75 50.5 54.5
Tobias Aisien - 1 14.8 11.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 -23 -1.3 -5.9 50.0 25.0 100.0 -0.09 61.9 56.2
Souleymane Barro - 1 12.1 11.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 11.0 27 3.9 64.9 83.3 100.0 0 -0.4 91.7 91.7
DM Sanders - 1 22.1 11.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 4.0 4 0.2 1.7 30.8 37.5 0.0 -1.23 40.9 42.3
Shad Thomas - 1 12.5 10.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 20 1.1 5.1 100.0 0 0.0 1.03 79.1 100.0
Jalen Brown - 1 13.5 10.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 8.0 8 0.3 1.7 66.7 0.0 100.0 -0.15 72.7 66.7
JJ Mitchell - 1 20.9 10.0 9.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 16.0 -11 -0.5 -5.8 62.5 0.0 0.0 -1.34 51.2 62.5
Jaylin Leslie - 1 16.2 9.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 5.0 12 0.6 3.2 50.0 33.3 0 0.51 56.2 56.2
Isaiah Bernard-Lopez - 1 13.7 9.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.0 - - - 80.0 100.0 0 - 90.0 90.0
Veljko Muntilak - 1 16.0 8.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 -6 -2.0 -8.8 40.0 0 100.0 0.01 59.2 40.0
Jayden Johnston - 1 18.2 8.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 -38 -1.8 -10.4 50.0 50.0 0 -1.24 66.7 66.7
Josiah Sanders - 1 14.8 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 9.0 -46 -2.0 -10.6 50.0 0.0 66.7 1.09 60.2 50.0
John Solomon - 1 17.6 8.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 9.0 -19 -0.8 -12.3 100.0 0 0.0 -0.56 90.1 100.0
Tomi Adesiji - 1 19.5 7.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 7.0 -49 -3.1 -108.9 16.7 0.0 83.3 -0.06 40.5 16.7
David Cheatom - 1 15.9 7.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 22 1.0 4.8 60.0 50.0 0 0.4 70.0 70.0
keshrey smith - 1 13.3 7.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 4 0.3 3.4 75.0 100.0 0 0.19 87.5 87.5
Aaron Ragen - 1 18.4 6.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 6.0 48 2.4 10.6 50.0 50.0 0 2.12 75.0 75.0
Colton Gray - 1 10.7 5.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 14 1.4 10.1 100.0 0 50.0 -1.21 86.8 100.0
Colton Kelley - 1 10.1 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 - - - 33.3 25.0 0 - 41.7 41.7
Caleb Oden - 1 9.5 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 -57 -3.2 -13.5 50.0 0.0 100.0 -0.19 75.3 50.0
DJ Sanders - 1 14.2 5.0 2.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 6.0 4 0.2 1.7 33.3 50.0 0 -1.23 41.7 41.7
Chris Carrillo - 1 19.8 5.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 -29 -1.4 -8.5 66.7 50.0 0 -0.86 83.3 83.3
Remington Rofer - 1 13.7 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 3 0.1 0.8 33.3 33.3 0 -1.65 41.7 41.7
Wesley Trevino - 1 10.8 5.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 -29 -4.8 -148.1 25.0 0.0 75.0 -2.71 43.4 25.0
Parker Christensen - 1 21.9 4.0 6.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 10.0 -90 -4.7 -24.7 25.0 0.0 100.0 1.0 41.0 25.0
Chanel Mballa - 1 10.3 4.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 39 2.2 50.1 66.7 0 0 2.35 66.7 66.7
Nate Simon - 1 18.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.0 30 1.6 11.0 40.0 0.0 0 0.81 40.0 40.0
Ryan Conner - 1 5.9 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 - - - 50.0 100.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
DaSean Stevens - 1 15.0 3.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 11.0 8 0.3 1.6 25.0 33.3 0 2.74 37.5 37.5
Luke Lin - 1 15.0 3.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 11.0 -22 -1.0 -8.9 25.0 33.3 0 -0.56 37.5 37.5
Micah Boone - 1 12.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 -11 -0.6 -4.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 -3.05 23.1 33.3
Myles Harvey - 1 12.1 2.0 5.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 6.0 14 2.8 175.0 33.3 0.0 0 -0.06 33.3 33.3
Promise Madubugwu - 1 12.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 -28 -4.7 -173.6 0.0 0 100.0 -1.51 34.7 0.0
EJ Bryson - 1 17.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 -4 -0.2 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0 0.85 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG