Nicholls Colonels
Model Outputs
2012-2013
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1045 (#135) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1034 (#133) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1040 (#114) | HCA +72 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -5.6 (#228) | HCA +3.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -4.3 (#206) | HCA +2.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.535 (#145) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.265 (#229) | AdjNet -8.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.255 (#230) | AdjNet -9.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.397 (#214) | AdjO 61.6 | AdjD 66.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.471 (#173) | AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 63.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.418 (#193) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.433 (#185) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1003 (#161) | RD 139 | GP 26 |
2013 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-11-09 | @ | DePaul Blue Demons | L | 57 - 87 |
| 2012-11-13 | @ | LSU New Orleans Privateers | W | 80 - 66 |
| 2012-11-16 | vs | UL Monroe Warhawks | W | 85 - 60 |
| 2012-11-19 | vs | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W | 71 - 62 |
| 2012-12-13 | @ | Alabama State Lady Hornets | W | 57 - 46 |
| 2012-12-19 | @ | Arkansas State Red Wolves | L | 58 - 66 |
| 2012-12-29 | @ | Texas Southern Tigers | W | 65 - 58 |
| 2013-01-03 | vs | Central Arkansas Sugar Bears | L | 56 - 72 |
| 2013-01-05 | vs | Oral Roberts Golden Eagles | W | 69 - 66 |
| 2013-01-07 | @ | McNeese Cowgirls | W | 78 - 61 |
| 2013-01-12 | @ | SE Louisiana Lady Lions | W | 71 - 65 |
| 2013-01-17 | @ | Northwestern State Lady Demons | L | 55 - 64 |
| 2013-01-19 | @ | Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks | L | 66 - 74 |
| 2013-01-24 | vs | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W | 70 - 53 |
| 2013-01-26 | vs | Sam Houston Bearkats | L | 63 - 70 |
| 2013-01-31 | @ | Oral Roberts Golden Eagles | L | 56 - 84 |
| 2013-02-02 | @ | Central Arkansas Sugar Bears | W | 68 - 62 |
| 2013-02-09 | vs | SE Louisiana Lady Lions | W | 69 - 65 |
| 2013-02-14 | vs | Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks | W | 65 - 64 |
| 2013-02-16 | vs | Northwestern State Lady Demons | W | 67 - 50 |
| 2013-02-19 | @ | Lamar Cardinals | L | 57 - 59 |
| 2013-02-28 | @ | Sam Houston Bearkats | L | 60 - 74 |
| 2013-03-02 | @ | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W | 60 - 51 |
| 2013-03-07 | vs | Lamar Cardinals | W | 84 - 77 |
| 2013-03-09 | vs | McNeese Cowgirls | W | 65 - 59 |
| 2013-03-14 | vs | McNeese Cowgirls | L | 70 - 86 |
2013 Roster
No roster data available for this season.