🐻⬇️🏀

Nelson

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Nelson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026 latest available
Catalog

No materialized model snapshot for 2024 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 904 (#464) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 983 (#506) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -27.5 (#658) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.039 (#677) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -23.3 More → 0.064 (#578) AdjNet -23.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.8 More → 0.059 (#578) AdjNet -22.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.7 | AdjD 67.3 More → 0.209 (#572) AdjO 52.7 | AdjD 67.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 63.6 More → 0.390 (#549) AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 63.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.148 (#635) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.179 (#622) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 866 (#445) RD 350 | GP 1

2024 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2023-12-29 vs Howard Payne W 74 - 39

2024 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
AGAR GARCIA - 1 35.0 21.0 14.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 14.0 22.0 - - - 64.3 66.7 50.0 - 70.6 71.4
CHANIE CHAMBERS - 1 22.0 11.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 11.0 - - - 57.1 50.0 50.0 - 69.8 71.4
KYLA MCMINN - 1 28.0 9.0 6.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 2.0 11.0 8.0 - - - 27.3 50.0 100.0 - 37.9 31.8
AUTUMN MOORE - 1 19.0 9.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 8.0 121 10.1 22.5 57.1 0 25.0 1.37 51.4 57.1
RYLEE LAVENDER - 1 14.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 - - - 66.7 0 80.0 - 76.9 66.7
CAILYN TUCKER - 1 11.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 26 3.7 4.6 33.3 0.0 66.7 0.31 53.2 33.3
NEELEY TILLEY-BEDICK - 1 18.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 50.0 - 25.5 20.0
WENDY CLEMMONS - 1 25.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 - - - 16.7 16.7 0 - 25.0 25.0
JENNAH SAVAGE - 1 13.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 - - - 16.7 0.0 0 - 16.7 16.7
AALIYAH THOMAS - 1 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 10 0.4 0.7 0 0 100.0 0.14 113.6 0
GABRIELLE OWENS - 1 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
CAITLYN PANUCO - 1 5.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 28 1.9 2.1 0 0 0 0.12 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG