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Nelson

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: Nelson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 904 (#464) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 983 (#506) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -27.5 (#658) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.039 (#677) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -23.3 More → 0.064 (#578) AdjNet -23.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.8 More → 0.059 (#578) AdjNet -22.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.7 | AdjD 67.3 More → 0.209 (#572) AdjO 52.7 | AdjD 67.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 63.6 More → 0.390 (#549) AdjO 58.7 | AdjD 63.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.148 (#635) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.179 (#622) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 866 (#445) RD 350 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-22 @ La Verne L 44 - 77

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Gabrielle Haskie - 1 21.8 9.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 7.0 - - - 75.0 0 37.5 - 59.8 75.0
Sophia Moron - 1 34.1 8.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 - - - 37.5 50.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Chloe Warren - 1 26.1 7.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 2.0 - - - 28.6 20.0 100.0 - 44.4 35.7
Tatiana Ayala - 1 21.1 6.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 - - - 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Tatum Howlingwater - 1 15.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 -2.0 - - - 40.0 0.0 33.3 - 39.6 40.0
Emma Koker - 1 17.7 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 - - - 20.0 0 50.0 - 32.7 20.0
Aerianz Brown - 1 9.9 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 14 1.4 37.3 50.0 0.0 0 -0.51 50.0 50.0
Jordan Hankston - 1 17.1 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Juliana Kirker - 1 22.9 0.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Takara Rocha - 1 14.4 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 -5.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG