🐻⬇️🏀

Nelson

Season: 2026 2024 2016 2015
Also known as: Nelson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 929 (#433) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 871 (#463) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 922 (#592) HCA +75 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → -39.8 (#675) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.001 (#681) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -62.7 More → 0.000 (#512) NetEff -62.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -32.9 More → 0.022 (#666) AdjNet -32.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -32.2 More → 0.019 (#668) AdjNet -32.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 51.6 | AdjD 72.4 More → 0.131 (#663) AdjO 51.6 | AdjD 72.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 52.0 | AdjD 72.3 More → 0.137 (#684) AdjO 52.0 | AdjD 72.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.052 (#682) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.060 (#683) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 233 | GP 2 More → 781 (#484) RD 233 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-01-02 @ Colo. Sch. of Mines L 42 - 98
2026-01-03 @ Colo. Christian L 36 - 80

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Nya Misi Havatone - 2 22.4 9.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 7.5 0.0 - - - 40.0 41.7 50.0 - 56.7 56.7
Tatiana Ayala - 2 24.0 5.0 8.5 1.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 7.5 6.5 - - - 26.7 0 66.7 - 30.6 26.7
Makayla Powell - 2 11.9 5.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.5 4.0 1.0 - - - 37.5 0 50.0 - 43.4 37.5
Sophia Moron - 2 28.6 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 0.0 8.5 4.0 -2.0 - - - 37.5 50.0 100.0 - 47.4 43.8
Emma Koker - 2 14.2 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.0 -0.5 - - - 37.5 33.3 0 - 43.8 43.8
Unique Begishe - 2 9.9 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 4.5 - - - 66.7 66.7 0 - 100.0 100.0
Chloe Warren - 2 21.8 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -3.0 - - - 25.0 20.0 50.0 - 33.8 31.2
Juliana Kirker - 2 15.1 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 4.5 -2.5 - - - 22.2 0.0 0 - 22.2 22.2
Gabrielle Haskie - 2 19.6 2.0 2.0 2.5 1.5 0.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 - - - 16.7 0.0 50.0 - 25.8 16.7
Aerianz Brown - 2 20.4 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 3.0 3.5 -2.0 127 5.8 35.6 14.3 0.0 50.0 2.22 19.0 14.3
Takara Rocha - 2 12.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.0 1.5 -1.0 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG