N.C. Wesleyan
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1095 (#112) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1124 (#101) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1082 (#114) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.1 (#119) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.5 (#448) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.541 (#438) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.285 (#462) | AdjNet -8.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.279 (#465) | AdjNet -8.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.371 (#462) | AdjO 73.5 | AdjD 79.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.497 (#417) | AdjO 77.3 | AdjD 77.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.467 (#430) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.479 (#425) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1098 (#181) | RD 106 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | JWU Charlotte | W | 89 - 72 |
| 2025-11-09 | @ | Bridgewater (VA) | W | 85 - 61 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Guilford | L | 102 - 106 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Randolph | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Chris. Newport | L | 69 - 78 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Regent | W | 100 - 66 |
| 2025-12-05 | vs | Mid-Atlantic Christ. | W | 100 - 83 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Apprentice | W | 66 - 51 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Regent | W | 91 - 77 |
| 2025-12-15 | @ | Mary Washington | L | 46 - 75 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Piedmont | W | 78 - 77 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Pfeiffer | W | 80 - 78 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Mary Baldwin | W | 77 - 74 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Greensboro | W | 77 - 62 |
| 2026-01-11 | vs | Brevard | W | 101 - 60 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Southern Va. | L | 71 - 77 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | William Peace | W | 85 - 77 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Mary Baldwin | W | 88 - 63 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | Pfeiffer | L | 79 - 98 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Methodist | L | 86 - 90 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Greensboro | W | 91 - 84 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasir Johnson | - | 21 | 33.6 | 18.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 11.7 | -63 | -3.0 | -12.2 | 56.4 | 45.2 | 68.8 | -0.1 | 63.1 | 61.5 |
| Rashod Smith | - | 20 | 31.4 | 15.4 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 9.4 | 14.8 | -57 | -2.7 | -12.8 | 51.1 | 31.0 | 77.8 | 0.37 | 63.3 | 55.9 |
| Markquan Gilbert | - | 21 | 18.6 | 11.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 7.1 | -61 | -2.8 | -20.9 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 63.9 | -1.81 | 60.9 | 58.7 |
| James Jones | - | 21 | 29.1 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 8.8 | 6.5 | -45 | -1.3 | -11.6 | 39.7 | 35.9 | 64.5 | -0.67 | 53.6 | 52.2 |
| Justin Burden | - | 21 | 22.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 7.8 | 8.5 | -49 | -2.1 | -16.0 | 46.6 | 28.6 | 76.6 | 0.21 | 53.4 | 49.1 |
| Ro'Mello Pegues | - | 18 | 14.3 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 | -70 | -3.7 | -48.5 | 48.1 | 28.6 | 80.4 | 0.47 | 59.1 | 50.6 |
| Deejayy Cox | - | 20 | 27.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 9.9 | -34 | -1.5 | -9.9 | 49.4 | 44.4 | 70.7 | 0.94 | 56.6 | 51.7 |
| Omari Bolden | - | 9 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 | -26 | -2.6 | -11.8 | 40.9 | 16.7 | 84.6 | -1.8 | 54.1 | 43.2 |
| DJ Benbow | - | 10 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | -47 | -3.9 | -103.8 | 57.1 | 50.0 | 60.0 | -2.42 | 63.0 | 61.9 |
| Marcus Portis | - | 9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 | -17 | -1.7 | -194.3 | 64.3 | 0 | 57.1 | -0.92 | 64.4 | 64.3 |
| Josh Laney | - | 17 | 8.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | -100 | -5.9 | -120.8 | 24.1 | 25.0 | 100.0 | -3.31 | 37.4 | 32.8 |
| Adefisayo Adebimpe | - | 19 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | -51 | -2.5 | -172.4 | 33.3 | 16.7 | 81.2 | -0.61 | 57.8 | 37.5 |
| Brayden Blue | - | 9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -10 | -1.2 | -125.7 | 42.9 | 50.0 | 50.0 | -0.22 | 50.8 | 50.0 |
| Jordan Dancy | - | 9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | -14 | -2.0 | -74.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 75.0 | -1.64 | 60.8 | 50.0 |
| Dahir Hagi | - | 2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Zarion Williams | - | 5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -5 | -1.7 | -130.4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG