Mt. St. Mary (NY)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 967 (#307) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1046 (#254) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1084 (#112) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -8.5 (#280) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.9 (#385) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.897 (#248) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.735 (#264) | NetEff +7.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.488 (#386) | AdjNet -0.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.477 (#385) | AdjNet -0.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.452 (#401) | AdjO 61.5 | AdjD 63.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.614 (#215) | AdjO 67.4 | AdjD 62.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.536 (#355) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.564 (#328) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1088 (#190) | RD 103 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | SUNY New Paltz | L | 44 - 67 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | SUNY Brockport | L | 64 - 94 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Yeshiva | W | 88 - 45 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Sarah Lawrence | W | 85 - 58 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Old Westbury | W | 72 - 26 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Vassar | W | 72 - 68 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | St. Joseph's (L.I.) | W | 64 - 30 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Manhattanville | L | 58 - 63 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Redlands | L | 34 - 90 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | UMSV | W | 73 - 56 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | Merchant Marine | W | 80 - 73 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Yeshiva | W | 85 - 33 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Sarah Lawrence | W | 76 - 60 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Old Westbury | W | 98 - 48 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Farmingdale St. | L | 68 - 78 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Merchant Marine | L | 56 - 84 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Purchase | W | 66 - 55 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brianna Guglielmo | - | 16 | 32.8 | 16.9 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 58 | 2.9 | 13.8 | 44.5 | 39.7 | 73.8 | -0.21 | 54.8 | 50.0 |
| Margaret Trinkaus | - | 16 | 26.8 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 8.9 | 10.6 | 70 | 3.3 | 21.5 | 42.3 | 29.4 | 72.0 | 0.76 | 49.1 | 44.0 |
| Sara Cashin | - | 17 | 29.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 128 | 5.8 | 32.7 | 41.0 | 7.7 | 65.6 | 1.75 | 46.2 | 41.3 |
| Gabby Ziegenbalg | - | 16 | 19.6 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 47 | 2.4 | 18.1 | 38.1 | 40.4 | 84.2 | 0.24 | 55.8 | 53.2 |
| Reese Mayer | - | 17 | 29.3 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 37 | 1.8 | 10.3 | 42.6 | 18.8 | 84.6 | -1.74 | 54.3 | 44.1 |
| Angelina Donato | - | 13 | 23.9 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 7 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 39.2 | 24.0 | 66.7 | 3.96 | 48.1 | 43.0 |
| Keira Frias | - | 13 | 18.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 94 | 5.5 | 95.3 | 29.1 | 26.2 | 33.3 | -1.55 | 38.9 | 39.0 |
| Maggie Trinkaus | - | 1 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | -4.0 | 70 | 3.3 | 21.5 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.76 | 31.2 | 31.2 |
| Ysella Kosic | - | 9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 39 | 3.5 | 127.9 | 23.1 | 15.8 | 87.5 | 1.14 | 32.9 | 26.9 |
| Jaelynn Walker | - | 11 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 49 | 3.8 | 69.0 | 46.4 | 0 | 63.6 | -1.28 | 50.2 | 46.4 |
| Darcy DeBenedittis | - | 13 | 11.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 14 | 0.9 | 14.3 | 35.1 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.22 | 38.2 | 35.1 |
| Grace Christie | - | 13 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 18 | 1.2 | 14.0 | 29.7 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 1.88 | 38.3 | 36.5 |
| Jenny Lopez | - | 8 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 61 | 6.1 | 920.8 | 37.5 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0.06 | 47.4 | 46.9 |
| Ava Orbon | - | 6 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -24 | -3.4 | -44.5 | 14.3 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 0.22 | 25.4 | 21.4 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG