Mt. St. Mary (NY)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More â | 685 (#650) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More â | 687 (#638) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More â | 737 (#774) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More â | -32.9 (#418) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More â | -26.7 (#734) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More â | 0.060 (#757) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More â | 0.011 (#773) | AdjNet -39.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More â | 0.010 (#774) | AdjNet -39.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More â | 0.070 (#767) | AdjO 58.5 | AdjD 86.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More â | 0.145 (#767) | AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 80.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More â | 0.065 (#766) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More â | 0.072 (#767) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More â | 666 (#619) | RD 99 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Fordham | L | 37 - 106 |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Hunter | W | 71 - 58 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Pratt | L | 63 - 81 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Bard | W | 62 - 55 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Vassar | L | 58 - 105 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Russell Sage | L | 74 - 85 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ | Amherst | L | 53 - 95 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Misericordia | L | 45 - 80 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Purchase | L | 71 - 95 |
| 2025-12-21 | vs | Penn St. Brandywine | W | 73 - 42 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Wash. & Lee | L | 39 - 94 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Marywood | L | 71 - 85 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Manhattanville | L | 63 - 65 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | UMSV | L | 57 - 68 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Yeshiva | L | 60 - 89 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Sarah Lawrence | L | 50 - 68 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | SUNY Maritime | L | 69 - 81 |
| 2026-01-20 | @ | Merchant Marine | L | 48 - 65 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | St. Joseph's (L.I.) | L | 66 - 87 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Farmingdale St. | L | 40 - 89 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Old Westbury | L | 78 - 95 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | St. Joseph's (Brkln) | L | 74 - 80 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Purchase | L | 54 - 69 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hammond | - | 1 | 22.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 62 | 3.6 | 22.2 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.27 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Justin Amadi | - | 1 | 22.7 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 85.7 | 0 | 0 | - | 85.7 | 85.7 |
| Abdou Khadre KĂŠbĂŠ | - | 1 | 18.8 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 62.5 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| Trey Deveaux | - | 1 | 24.6 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | - | - | - | 45.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 48.1 | 45.5 |
| Anastasios Rozakeas | - | 1 | 18.6 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 60.0 | 0 | - | 91.7 | 91.7 |
| Justin Rivera | - | 20 | 25.5 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 9.9 | 3.2 | -74 | -4.1 | -26.0 | 30.8 | 26.0 | 69.1 | -3.44 | 41.6 | 37.1 |
| Matthew Walsh | - | 20 | 25.9 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 7.4 | -4 | -0.2 | -1.2 | 41.6 | 24.6 | 66.1 | -1.51 | 51.1 | 47.1 |
| Anthony Arrington | - | 1 | 23.2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 30.8 | 12.5 | 0.0 | - | 32.4 | 34.6 |
| Patrick Haigh | - | 1 | 15.2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 60.0 | 0 | - | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| J.P. Egan | - | 21 | 24.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 8.4 | 6.2 | -55 | -2.9 | -19.0 | 40.7 | 25.3 | 42.9 | -0.91 | 46.7 | 46.6 |
| Brenden Graham | - | 20 | 24.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 6 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 34.1 | 25.0 | 68.3 | 0.6 | 45.5 | 40.9 |
| Rob Geremino | - | 19 | 18.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | -47 | -2.8 | -38.3 | 32.0 | 26.8 | 73.3 | -1.42 | 44.0 | 39.8 |
| Zane Adnan | - | 1 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 61 | 5.1 | 37.2 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 2.77 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Mason So | - | 1 | 23.7 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 62.5 | 62.5 |
| Drew Martin | - | 1 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 98 | 5.8 | 40.6 | 40.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 5.51 | 42.5 | 40.0 |
| Liam Lynch | - | 20 | 13.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 2.8 | -64 | -3.4 | -43.0 | 36.5 | 25.6 | 64.9 | -1.06 | 47.4 | 42.4 |
| Conor Gemmill | - | 19 | 17.6 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | -75 | -3.9 | -32.1 | 34.8 | 25.0 | 61.5 | 1.13 | 42.5 | 40.8 |
| Elijah Espinosa | - | 1 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | -27 | -1.6 | -12.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.29 | 72.5 | 100.0 |
| Ryan Hempfling | - | 1 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 8 | 1.3 | 42.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.35 | 69.4 | 50.0 |
| Matt Monaco | - | 21 | 15.6 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | -58 | -3.1 | -31.7 | 45.5 | 9.1 | 85.7 | -3.68 | 48.1 | 46.1 |
| Soren Holmbo | - | 16 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | -25 | -1.8 | -41.2 | 41.2 | 25.0 | 61.5 | -1.31 | 49.1 | 45.6 |
| Nate Pabis | - | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 20 | 1.2 | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | -2.21 | 113.6 | 0 |
| Daniel Herzner | - | 20 | 10.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | -68 | -3.8 | -62.9 | 28.3 | 20.6 | 46.2 | -0.84 | 37.7 | 35.9 |
| Anthony Marzziotti | - | 21 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -69 | -3.6 | -47.5 | 27.3 | 29.7 | 40.0 | -1.2 | 40.0 | 39.8 |
| Brody Schuh | - | 15 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | -3 | -0.2 | -16.5 | 37.5 | 16.7 | 77.8 | 0.4 | 50.1 | 40.6 |
| Jorge Jimenez | - | 14 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 3 | 0.2 | 18.1 | 18.8 | 37.5 | 50.0 | -0.27 | 33.3 | 28.1 |
| Kaleb Eller | - | 19 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -0.8 | -17 | -1.0 | -19.3 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -0.77 | 21.0 | 17.6 |
| Matthew Shupenis | - | 14 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -11 | -0.8 | -15.3 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 37.5 | -0.0 | 40.7 | 40.0 |
| Arlandus Keyes | - | 1 | 26.2 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| John Miller IV | - | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 25 | 1.7 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacob Blank | - | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG