Mount Aloysius
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1027 (#181) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 876 (#487) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 861 (#646) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -14.1 (#320) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -21.7 (#620) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.543 (#432) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.364 (#399) | NetEff -4.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.065 (#577) | AdjNet -23.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.054 (#586) | AdjNet -24.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.201 (#580) | AdjO 58.8 | AdjD 73.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.247 (#636) | AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 67.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.137 (#638) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.145 (#640) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 754 (#504) | RD 99 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Wooster | L | 69 - 86 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Grove City | L | 64 - 82 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Saint Vincent | L | 53 - 69 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Penn College | L | 55 - 66 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Wilson | W | 79 - 58 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Carlow | W | 98 - 54 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Allegheny | L | 58 - 84 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Otterbein | L | 32 - 69 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Penn St.-Behrend | L | 59 - 76 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | La Roche | L | 59 - 81 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Alfred St. | L | 60 - 69 |
| 2026-01-19 | vs | Pitt.-Greensburg | W | 87 - 43 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Penn St.-Altoona | L | 58 - 61 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Pitt.-Bradford | W | 80 - 57 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Pitt.-Greensburg | W | 70 - 42 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | La Roche | L | 55 - 64 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Alfred St. | L | 67 - 74 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Kosmack | - | 16 | 33.0 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 9.6 | 24.2 | - | - | - | 56.5 | 0.0 | 87.3 | - | 64.4 | 56.5 |
| Annalyn Isaacs | - | 17 | 26.6 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 45.0 | 41.6 | 83.3 | - | 61.4 | 59.1 |
| Mackenzie Barr | - | 14 | 21.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | - | - | - | 45.5 | 100.0 | 55.2 | - | 47.9 | 46.0 |
| Molly Richards | - | 12 | 24.8 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 2.3 | - | - | - | 32.2 | 32.1 | 70.0 | - | 45.0 | 41.7 |
| Brionna Brown | - | 17 | 19.6 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 0.8 | 55.4 | 37.8 | 30.8 | 67.7 | 0.25 | 48.5 | 45.0 |
| Ashlie Weaver | - | 15 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 4.9 | - | - | - | 53.2 | 0.0 | 60.9 | - | 56.0 | 53.2 |
| Masie Reed | - | 17 | 25.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 0.9 | - | - | - | 30.5 | 25.0 | 40.9 | - | 38.2 | 37.2 |
| Haley Ross | - | 17 | 19.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 | - | - | - | 31.1 | 16.7 | 82.4 | - | 40.5 | 35.1 |
| Taylor Doyle | - | 17 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | - | - | - | 36.5 | 24.0 | 68.4 | - | 47.2 | 42.3 |
| Lauryn Kitchen | - | 9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 0.1 | - | - | - | 35.7 | 31.6 | 0.0 | - | 45.7 | 46.4 |
| Mariah Hall | - | 15 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 0.5 | -7 | -0.7 | -30.7 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 77.8 | -0.91 | 36.2 | 31.4 |
| Abby Crossman | - | 8 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | - | - | - | 53.3 | 100.0 | 0 | - | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Amber Cross | - | 14 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 28.2 | 25.0 |
| Chloe Fritch | - | 2 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG