Morgan St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2020 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 999 (#271) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1021 (#252) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1010 (#313) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +1.5 (#153) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.4 (#164) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.893 (#187) | - |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.603 (#323) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.588 (#363) | AdjNet +3.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.494 (#409) | AdjNet -0.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.616 (#353) | AdjNet +4.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.493 (#413) | AdjNet -0.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.522 (#389) | AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 64.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.520 (#392) | AdjO 69.5 | AdjD 68.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.713 (#75) | AdjO 72.5 | AdjD 62.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.745 (#142) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.730 (#146) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1008 (#235) | RD 68 | GP 86 |
2020 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-08 | @ | Trevecca Nazarene | L | 64 - 69 |
| 2019-11-09 | @ | Ky. Wesleyan | L | 53 - 62 |
| 2019-11-13 | vs | Westminster (MO) | W | 113 - 46 |
| 2019-11-19 | vs | Lindenwood (IL) | W | 75 - 59 |
| 2019-11-23 | vs | Avila | W | 80 - 61 |
| 2019-11-26 | @ | Southern Ark. | L | 74 - 91 |
| 2019-12-03 | vs | Maryville (MO) | W | 76 - 73 |
| 2019-12-18 | vs | Mo. Baptist | W | 79 - 72 |
| 2020-01-02 | @ | Lindenwood | L | 60 - 73 |
| 2020-01-04 | @ | Mo.-St. Louis | L | 56 - 67 |
| 2020-01-09 | @ | Truman St. | L | 71 - 87 |
| 2020-01-11 | @ | Quincy | W | 91 - 76 |
| 2020-01-16 | vs | Southwest Baptist | L | 78 - 85 |
| 2020-01-18 | vs | Drury | L | 76 - 97 |
| 2020-01-20 | @ | Maryville (MO) | W | 82 - 74 |
| 2020-01-23 | vs | Rockhurst | L | 70 - 85 |
| 2020-01-25 | @ | William Jewell | L | 82 - 88 |
| 2020-01-30 | @ | Drury | L | 68 - 116 |
| 2020-02-01 | @ | Southwest Baptist | L | 62 - 74 |
| 2020-02-06 | vs | McKendree | L | 60 - 74 |
| 2020-02-08 | vs | Southern Ind. | L | 70 - 79 |
| 2020-02-13 | @ | Ill. Springfield | L | 76 - 83 |
| 2020-02-15 | @ | Lewis | L | 63 - 71 |
| 2020-02-20 | vs | Bellarmine | L | 58 - 80 |
| 2020-02-22 | vs | UIndy | L | 75 - 90 |
| 2020-02-27 | vs | Quincy | W | 84 - 77 |
| 2020-02-29 | vs | Truman St. | L | 52 - 65 |
2020 Roster
No roster data available for this season.