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Morgan St.

Season: 2026 2023 2022 2021
Also known as: Morgan St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1027 (#268) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1056 (#249) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1001 (#451) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +20.3 (#125) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.997 (#117) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +13.2 More → 0.820 (#224) AdjNet +13.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +13.0 More → 0.824 (#223) AdjNet +13.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 82.1 | AdjD 72.5 More → 0.705 (#224) AdjO 82.1 | AdjD 72.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.9 | AdjD 70.8 More → 0.751 (#64) AdjO 82.9 | AdjD 70.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.783 (#120) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.773 (#110) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 270 | GP 1 More → 990 (#387) RD 270 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-30 vs Penn St. Brandywine - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.