Missouri Valley
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 979 (#240) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 903 (#439) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 976 (#415) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -8.7 (#446) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.016 (#621) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.077 (#644) | AdjNet -21.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.085 (#630) | AdjNet -20.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.194 (#634) | AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 84.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.411 (#450) | AdjO 72.4 | AdjD 76.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.311 (#459) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.324 (#454) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 858 (#413) | RD 292 | GP 2 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | @ | Northwest Mo. St. | L | 47 - 71 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Northeastern St. | L | 73 - 105 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Glenn | - | 1 | 29.3 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 39 | 1.8 | 6.2 | 52.9 | 40.0 | 75.0 | 0.4 | 61.3 | 58.8 |
| Aiden Gair | - | 1 | 25.7 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 63.6 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0.49 | 77.1 | 81.8 |
| Nehemiah Weber | - | 1 | 28.8 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 24 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 62.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 | -1.67 | 84.5 | 81.2 |
| Harry Neilson | - | 1 | 14.8 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 18.0 | 42 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.36 | 90.2 | 100.0 |
| Matthew Mayes | - | 1 | 20.9 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 69 | 4.9 | 37.6 | 55.6 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 2.11 | 60.7 | 61.1 |
| Dylan Tea | - | 1 | 22.5 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | -8 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 50.0 | -1.87 | 79.9 | 83.3 |
| Jaxson Vandegarde | - | 1 | 16.7 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 39 | 1.9 | 18.9 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 0 | -1.43 | 112.5 | 112.5 |
| Royce Williams | - | 1 | 31.1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 37.5 | 20.0 | 100.0 | 1.82 | 50.7 | 43.8 |
| AJ Reed Jr | - | 1 | 24.3 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | - | - | 11.1 | 25.0 | 83.3 | - | 34.4 | 16.7 |
| Taven Washington | - | 1 | 24.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 2.05 | 58.1 | 50.0 |
| Trey Moala | - | 1 | 26.7 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | -147 | -6.1 | -50.2 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.86 | 45.7 | 42.9 |
| Booker Scheierman | - | 1 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 10 | 0.8 | 15.6 | 75.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0.77 | 90.1 | 87.5 |
| Larenz Walters | - | 1 | 20.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | -144 | -6.3 | -48.1 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 0.04 | 58.3 | 58.3 |
| Ethan Blackmon | - | 1 | 21.4 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | -24 | -1.3 | -7.6 | 75.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -2.57 | 67.6 | 75.0 |
| Osa Obasohan | - | 1 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | -42 | -3.0 | -95.4 | 66.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 83.3 | 83.3 |
| Dalen Fuller | - | 1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 17 | 1.2 | 29.1 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.8 | 52.1 | 50.0 |
| Pierce Ross | - | 1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 32 | 2.0 | 32.4 | 100.0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.07 | 104.2 | 100.0 |
| Koen Derry | - | 1 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 43 | 3.3 | 22.5 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.55 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Ben Hagebusch | - | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10 | 2.5 | 82.8 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.59 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Jack Webb | - | 1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -2 | -0.3 | -24.7 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Parker Hardage | - | 1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 10 | 2.5 | 82.8 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.59 | 56.8 | 0 |
| Jack Ratigan | - | 1 | 24.5 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | -57 | -2.4 | -13.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1.9 | 12.9 | 0.0 |
| Ethan Villanueva | - | 1 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Robert Garcia | - | 1 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -97 | -4.2 | -24.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.17 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gob Gob | - | 1 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -11 | -2.2 | -56.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Presley Ibeh | - | 1 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -15 | -1.0 | -4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.09 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG