Minnesota St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1020 (#306) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1057 (#236) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1010 (#366) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +11.5 (#213) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.990 (#174) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.948 (#138) | AdjNet +25.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.948 (#142) | AdjNet +24.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.887 (#113) | AdjO 94.3 | AdjD 71.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.610 (#199) | AdjO 80.6 | AdjD 75.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.685 (#222) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.664 (#243) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1087 (#225) | RD 350 | GP 1 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Crown (MN) | W | 106 - 74 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traijan Sain | - | 1 | 12.5 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 17.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | - | 116.1 | 116.7 |
| Malcolm Jones | - | 1 | 13.1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 13 | 0.9 | 27.3 | 77.8 | 100.0 | 50.0 | 0.72 | 81.0 | 83.3 |
| Caden Kirkman | - | 1 | 16.9 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 71.4 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 68.5 | 71.4 |
| Colton Benson | - | 1 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | - | - | - | 80.0 | 66.7 | 100.0 | - | 101.1 | 100.0 |
| Joe Buchanan | - | 1 | 13.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 80.0 | 66.7 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Puolrah Gong | - | 1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 66.7 | - | 88.7 | 100.0 |
| Chase Bartlett | - | 1 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 66.7 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Phoenix Childs | - | 1 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 25.0 | 100.0 | - | 40.3 | 35.7 |
| AJ Bender | - | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Will Opsahl | - | 1 | 12.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| Keegan Harney | - | 1 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Carson Schweim | - | 1 | 14.9 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 16.7 | 25.0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| David Harmon | - | 1 | 17.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Ganden Gosch | - | 1 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arhman Lewis | - | 1 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 15 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG