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Minnesota St.

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Minnesota St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 918 (#367) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1050 (#170) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1167 (#27) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +8.4 (#120) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +16.7 (#84) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.739 (#188) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +46.7 More → 0.991 (#86) NetEff +46.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +23.0 More → 0.934 (#92) AdjNet +23.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +23.2 More → 0.937 (#89) AdjNet +23.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 86.1 | AdjD 68.4 More → 0.833 (#91) AdjO 86.1 | AdjD 68.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 81.3 | AdjD 69.5 More → 0.744 (#44) AdjO 81.3 | AdjD 69.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.808 (#61) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.808 (#54) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 26 More → 1160 (#70) RD 93 | GP 26

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-02 vs Pittsburg St. L 53 - 75
2025-11-14 vs Central Mo. W 81 - 63
2025-11-15 vs Henderson St. W 93 - 84
2025-11-18 vs Crown (MN) W 106 - 74
2025-11-21 vs Grand Valley St. L 55 - 76
2025-11-22 @ Chadron St. W 81 - 52
2025-11-25 vs St. Cloud St. L 53 - 73
2025-11-29 vs Waldorf W 119 - 80
2025-12-04 @ Winona St. L 75 - 83
2025-12-06 vs Concordia-St. Paul L 77 - 89
2025-12-11 vs Wayne St. (NE) W 71 - 60
2025-12-13 vs Augustana (SD) L 68 - 76
2025-12-18 @ Southwest Minn. St. L 66 - 78
2025-12-20 @ Sioux Falls L 90 - 98
2026-01-03 @ St. Cloud St. L 67 - 75
2026-01-09 @ Mary W 68 - 65
2026-01-10 @ Minot St. W 72 - 67
2026-01-16 vs Minn. Duluth W 80 - 77
2026-01-17 vs Bemidji St. W 98 - 83
2026-01-23 vs Northern St. W 78 - 67
2026-01-24 vs Jamestown W 80 - 71
2026-01-30 @ Minn.-Crookston W 85 - 62
2026-01-31 @ MSU Moorhead W 82 - 66
2026-02-05 vs Sioux Falls W 98 - 95
2026-02-07 vs Southwest Minn. St. W 74 - 71

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Traijan Sain - 24 26.3 12.8 3.5 1.8 1.3 0.5 1.6 10.1 8.1 2 0.1 0.4 44.0 34.2 88.2 -2.54 55.3 49.2
Malcolm Jones - 25 23.4 12.3 7.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 8.4 13.1 -7 -0.3 -1.5 56.9 28.6 65.0 2.94 60.4 57.4
Arhman Lewis - 24 29.3 11.7 2.7 5.9 0.8 0.1 1.8 9.0 10.2 96 4.2 14.8 45.2 40.2 68.4 0.69 56.1 52.8
Caden Kirkman - 25 24.3 11.0 5.6 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.7 7.8 10.0 17 0.7 3.9 56.9 35.7 65.7 0.31 61.5 59.5
Colton Benson - 24 24.6 9.6 3.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.5 6.8 6.7 103 4.7 20.3 43.2 39.3 85.5 2.47 62.0 56.8
Will Opsahl - 24 24.3 8.8 3.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.7 6.7 5.9 122 5.3 24.1 41.6 35.8 82.4 2.71 57.2 52.2
Phoenix Childs - 14 18.9 6.6 2.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.1 6.8 2.1 30 2.3 13.0 32.6 29.8 77.8 -0.09 45.2 41.6
Joe Buchanan - 11 12.5 5.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 5.3 1.2 -2 -0.2 -2.1 34.5 34.7 0 1.09 49.1 49.1
Carson Schweim - 20 14.4 4.0 2.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 4.0 3.8 55 2.8 22.3 33.8 29.1 50.0 3.46 45.2 43.8
Keegan Harney - 1 12.2 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 - - - 25.0 33.3 0 - 37.5 37.5
David Harmon - 15 10.9 2.7 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.1 2.5 2.4 -15 -1.1 -10.8 40.5 31.2 75.0 1.33 50.6 47.3
Chase Bartlett - 19 11.7 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 2.6 1.6 -52 -2.7 -50.9 28.0 22.0 100.0 1.41 42.0 37.0
AJ Bender - 6 17.2 2.3 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 3.0 0.8 - - - 38.9 0.0 0.0 - 38.0 38.9
Puolrah Gong - 17 5.8 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 -32 -2.0 -120.2 75.0 0 50.0 -2.66 68.8 75.0
Ganden Gosch - 1 10.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG