🐻⬇️🏀

Michigan Tech

Season: 2026 2025
Also known as: Michigan Tech
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1042 (#198) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1076 (#188) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1041 (#202) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +24.8 (#85) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 1.000 (#44) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +41.3 More → 0.992 (#38) AdjNet +41.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +41.1 More → 0.993 (#38) AdjNet +41.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 80.8 | AdjD 53.7 More → 0.922 (#60) AdjO 80.8 | AdjD 53.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 76.3 | AdjD 64.0 More → 0.754 (#61) AdjO 76.3 | AdjD 64.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.874 (#41) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.862 (#33) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 302 | GP 2 More → 1141 (#114) RD 302 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-29 vs Lakeland W 92 - 56
2025-12-13 vs Wis.-Stout W 79 - 41

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Marcus Tomashek - 1 22.7 22.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 16.0 9.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 66.7 - 63.5 62.5
Ty Fernholz - 2 23.0 12.0 2.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 12.0 6.0 - - - 37.5 31.6 0 - 50.0 50.0
Gabe Smith - 2 22.6 10.0 8.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 7.0 14.5 1 0.1 1.0 64.3 0.0 50.0 0.19 63.5 64.3
Peyton LaCombe - 1 13.8 9.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 8.0 - - - 60.0 50.0 100.0 - 76.5 70.0
Dawson Nordgaard - 2 15.3 8.5 2.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 4.0 10.0 - - - 87.5 0 75.0 - 87.1 87.5
Grant Warren - 2 16.8 8.5 4.5 2.5 0.0 1.5 1.0 6.0 10.0 - - - 58.3 33.3 100.0 - 66.0 62.5
Jesse Napgezek - 2 22.0 7.5 3.5 1.0 2.5 0.5 1.0 4.5 9.5 - - - 55.6 0.0 71.4 - 62.1 55.6
Nate Abel - 2 16.3 4.0 7.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 1.5 2.0 10.5 - - - 75.0 100.0 50.0 - 82.0 87.5
Drew Barrie - 2 11.9 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.5 1.5 - - - 42.9 40.0 0.0 - 50.8 57.1
Layne Risdon - 2 7.2 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 0.0 - 58.1 66.7
Alex Calcaterra - 2 6.6 3.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 1.5 - - - 40.0 50.0 50.0 - 59.5 60.0
Matt Schmainda - 2 15.0 3.0 4.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.5 2.0 5.5 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Josh Terrian - 2 15.9 3.0 4.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 4.0 - - - 40.0 40.0 0 - 60.0 60.0
Luke Hazelton - 2 3.9 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.0 - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Ethan Heck - 2 5.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 -1.0 - - - 20.0 0.0 0 - 20.0 20.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG