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Michigan Tech

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Michigan Tech
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1149 (#19) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1321 (#6) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1183 (#18) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +18.6 (#23) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +18.7 (#67) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.813 (#155) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +35.1 More → 0.979 (#121) NetEff +35.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +25.8 More → 0.952 (#77) AdjNet +25.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +26.0 More → 0.954 (#75) AdjNet +26.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 83.5 | AdjD 64.4 More → 0.850 (#81) AdjO 83.5 | AdjD 64.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 62.4 More → 0.791 (#23) AdjO 77.0 | AdjD 62.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.885 (#16) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.877 (#16) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 24 More → 1312 (#12) RD 99 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-01 vs DBU W 75 - 70
2025-11-02 vs Lenoir-Rhyne W 66 - 65
2025-11-14 vs Mo.-St. Louis L 57 - 78
2025-11-15 vs Maryville (MO) W 72 - 61
2025-11-21 @ Minn. Duluth W 57 - 48
2025-11-22 vs St. Cloud St. W 63 - 59
2025-11-29 vs Lakeland W 92 - 56
2025-12-04 @ Roosevelt W 73 - 55
2025-12-06 @ Wis.-Parkside W 69 - 54
2025-12-13 vs Wis.-Stout W 79 - 41
2025-12-19 @ Florida Tech W 64 - 52
2025-12-20 vs Lynn W 105 - 67
2026-01-02 vs Grand Valley St. L 75 - 79
2026-01-03 vs Davenport W 77 - 68
2026-01-08 vs Northern Mich. W 84 - 75
2026-01-10 vs Ferris St. W 81 - 72
2026-01-15 @ Saginaw Valley W 80 - 78
2026-01-17 @ Lake Superior St. W 84 - 83
2026-01-22 vs Wayne St. (MI) W 75 - 74
2026-01-24 vs Purdue Northwest W 83 - 65
2026-01-29 @ Davenport L 69 - 72
2026-01-31 @ Grand Valley St. L 46 - 55
2026-02-05 vs Lake Superior St. W 96 - 76
2026-02-07 vs Saginaw Valley W 62 - 52

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Marcus Tomashek - 23 30.4 21.8 4.4 3.0 0.8 0.3 2.9 17.2 10.1 32 1.3 4.6 39.1 35.9 80.3 0.15 54.1 47.9
Ty Fernholz - 24 19.9 9.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 8.5 2.5 -62 -2.6 -14.6 36.5 34.3 73.7 -1.05 53.0 51.7
Gabe Smith - 24 26.9 8.8 6.6 1.7 1.9 0.5 1.6 6.8 11.1 -28 -1.2 -4.5 50.0 20.8 49.4 1.33 52.4 51.5
Dawson Nordgaard - 24 20.4 8.3 3.6 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.5 5.0 8.5 24 1.0 5.6 63.0 0.0 69.4 0.64 66.4 63.0
Jesse Napgezek - 23 14.9 6.4 2.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 4.4 5.9 69 3.0 23.7 49.0 20.0 76.4 -0.05 58.2 51.5
Nate Abel - 24 28.1 5.7 7.6 2.4 1.4 0.1 1.8 4.2 11.2 19 0.8 3.0 44.0 41.3 80.6 1.25 58.7 53.5
Josh Terrian - 24 26.1 5.1 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 3.7 7.8 29 1.2 5.6 44.3 42.2 75.0 2.87 65.4 64.2
Matt Schmainda - 24 16.4 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.5 87 3.6 19.3 38.7 34.6 69.2 3.73 50.1 48.4
Grant Warren - 24 12.0 3.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.2 2.8 3.8 -53 -2.2 -24.5 44.1 25.0 91.7 -2.16 52.5 48.5
Peyton LaCombe - 6 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.5 -10 -1.7 -48.5 55.6 66.7 100.0 0.65 70.9 66.7
Drew Barrie - 17 4.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.6 -6 -0.4 -10.9 37.0 35.3 66.7 -0.36 50.6 48.1
Layne Risdon - 7 4.4 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.9 1.3 1.3 25 3.6 96.0 44.4 40.0 0.0 -0.7 50.6 55.6
Alex Calcaterra - 12 2.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 21 1.8 62.5 50.0 50.0 50.0 1.42 65.4 66.7
Ethan Heck - 5 3.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.6 11 2.2 235.7 16.7 0.0 0 0.19 16.7 16.7
Luke Hazelton - 10 2.4 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 19 1.7 148.1 20.0 0.0 0 -0.73 20.0 20.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG