Messiah
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1112 (#59) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1203 (#49) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1183 (#35) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +11.3 (#84) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.2 (#334) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.921 (#221) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.791 (#224) | NetEff +10.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.926 (#192) | AdjNet +21.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.924 (#196) | AdjNet +21.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.738 (#213) | AdjO 64.7 | AdjD 53.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.622 (#208) | AdjO 58.5 | AdjD 53.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.759 (#161) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.747 (#167) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1239 (#51) | RD 107 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Marywood | W | 81 - 48 |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Nazareth | W | 87 - 81 |
| 2025-11-12 | @ | Dickinson | L | 57 - 78 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Penn St. Harrisburg | W | 63 - 33 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Elizabethtown | L | 77 - 80 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Gettysburg | W | 83 - 77 |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Juniata | W | 70 - 38 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Mary Washington | W | 44 - 37 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ | Wis. Lutheran | W | 55 - 54 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Bethel (MN) | L | 64 - 71 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Widener | W | 75 - 69 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Albright | L | 47 - 58 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | York (PA) | W | 50 - 49 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Eastern | W | 78 - 40 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Alvernia | W | 57 - 42 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Hood | W | 57 - 31 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | York (PA) | W | 53 - 46 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Albright | W | 59 - 56 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Widener | W | 62 - 52 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liv Monturo | - | 18 | 32.1 | 21.6 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 15.9 | 16.8 | 38 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 55.1 | 0 | 74.5 | 4.86 | 58.9 | 55.1 |
| Charlotte Milanesi | - | 18 | 33.4 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 60 | 3.3 | 11.4 | 43.8 | 32.3 | 75.6 | 2.86 | 53.1 | 49.7 |
| Jenna Steadman | - | 1 | 34.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | -108 | -6.8 | -68.3 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.73 | 51.2 | 37.5 |
| Juliona Mabie | - | 1 | 28.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -72 | -4.8 | -106.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 75.0 | 0.76 | 41.8 | 33.3 |
| Rileigh Weaver | - | 1 | 33.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 | -103 | -6.4 | -83.0 | 27.3 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.6 | 30.6 | 27.3 |
| Hope Cook | - | 18 | 22.7 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 7.0 | 2.8 | -2 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 32.5 | 34.0 | 47.1 | 1.44 | 46.1 | 45.6 |
| Emmyfaith Wood | - | 1 | 32.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 15 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.01 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| McKenna Huff | - | 1 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | -26 | -1.7 | -92.7 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | -0.46 | 55.1 | 50.0 |
| Brooke Fenchel | - | 18 | 24.4 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 15 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 39.8 | 33.3 | 59.5 | 1.73 | 49.3 | 45.5 |
| Ainsley Bell | - | 18 | 19.0 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 15 | 0.8 | 4.9 | 41.5 | 22.2 | 91.7 | 0.04 | 49.1 | 44.6 |
| Maddy Jenisch | - | 1 | 30.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -70 | -4.4 | -47.1 | 9.1 | 14.3 | 0 | 0.92 | 13.6 | 13.6 |
| April Kauffeldt | - | 15 | 13.3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 10 | 0.7 | 12.1 | 46.3 | 100.0 | 40.0 | -0.55 | 47.5 | 47.6 |
| Kirsten Parypinski | - | 5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | -7 | -1.4 | -61.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.33 | 85.0 | 100.0 |
| Julianna Fisher | - | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -80 | -4.4 | -93.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.56 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Raegan Fogarty | - | 12 | 16.2 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 5 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 28.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.3 | 30.4 | 28.1 |
| Emma Fetterman | - | 7 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.9 | -0.4 | -35 | -7.0 | -190.9 | 30.8 | 42.9 | 0 | -0.53 | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| Maddy Gassman | - | 11 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | -30 | -2.7 | -114.1 | 38.9 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 0.61 | 43.6 | 38.9 |
| Marisa Amitie | - | 16 | 9.8 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 9 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 32.1 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 2.85 | 35.9 | 32.1 |
| Alison Jensen | - | 6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.5 | -0.3 | -11 | -2.2 | -130.7 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.2 | 30.4 | 22.2 |
| Gisaiah Griffin | - | 4 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | -0.2 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 17.4 | 0.0 |
| Lydia Ehst | - | 8 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -31 | -4.4 | -142.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.74 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Unity Miller | - | 4 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.2 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Bella McIntire | - | 4 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kirsten Parypenski | - | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Ainsley Phillips | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -88 | -5.9 | -266.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Mackenzie Wharton | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 | -72 | -4.8 | -151.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.91 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Emma Terry | - | 1 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | -133 | -8.3 | -78.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Hannah Warschaw | - | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -47 | -4.3 | -108.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.37 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG