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Mercyhurst Lakers

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2023 2022 2021 2009
Also known as: Mercyhurst Lakers
Program History
Coach: Erin Mills-Reid

2027 Team Stats (2 games)

65.5
PPG
54.5
Opp
+11.0
Margin
36.6%
FG%
28.1%
3P%
68.0%
FT%
40.5
RPG
15.5
APG
21.5
TO
70.0
Est. poss./game
50.9
Adj PPG
53.4
Adj Opp PPG
#163
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 972 (returning production + recruiting): last season 926, returning +59, transfers -13, freshmen +0 More → 950 (#195) Preseason prior 972 (returning production + recruiting): last season 926, returning +59, transfers -13, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 973 (#268) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +238 elo More → 973 (#210) HCA +238 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +17.8 More → -4.0 (#164) HCA +17.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.002 (#233) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -39.6 More → 0.002 (#218) NetEff -39.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -17.3 More → 0.119 (#230) AdjNet -17.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -17.3 More → 0.115 (#230) AdjNet -17.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 50.9 | AdjD 53.4 More → 0.443 (#163) AdjO 50.9 | AdjD 53.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 51.0 | AdjD 53.4 More → 0.444 (#164) AdjO 51.0 | AdjD 53.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.331 (#211) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.331 (#211) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 218 | GP 1 More → 893 (#237) RD 218 | GP 1

2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-03 @ Seton Hall Pirates L 37 - 63
2026-11-05 vs Penn State Beaver Nittany Lions W 94 - 46
2026-11-08 @ Ohio State Buckeyes - Preview
2026-11-11 @ St. Bonaventure Bonnies - Preview

2027 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lena Walz Lena Walz G 2 23.5 11.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 9.5 0.5 - - - - 42.1 41.2 0 - 60.5 60.5
Cici Hernandez Cici Hernandez G 2 26.0 7.5 4.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 3.5 7.0 4.5 - - - - 35.7 40.0 50.0 - 50.4 50.0
Alena Fusetti Alena Fusetti G 2 15.0 6.5 5.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 6.0 5.5 - - - - 25.0 20.0 83.3 - 44.4 33.3
Lauren Filien Lauren Filien F 2 16.5 6.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 - - - - 40.0 42.9 25.0 - 51.0 55.0
Erica Hall Erica Hall F 2 20.5 6.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.5 2.0 - - - - 54.5 0.0 0 - 54.5 54.5
Carmaya Bowman Carmaya Bowman F 2 19.0 4.5 4.0 1.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 4.5 8.0 - - - - 22.2 0 100.0 - 40.2 22.2
Ella Cupka Ella Cupka G 2 6.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 1.5 3.5 2.0 - - - - 42.9 33.3 33.3 - 48.1 50.0
Julia Lewis Julia Lewis G 2 13.5 4.0 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 - - - - 37.5 0.0 66.7 - 42.9 37.5
Sofia Wilson Sofia Wilson G 2 16.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 5.0 - - - - 30.8 0.0 0 - 30.8 30.8
Maya Aguilar Maya Aguilar G 2 7.5 3.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 - - - - 50.0 50.0 100.0 - 71.7 62.5
Layke Fields Layke Fields C 2 17.5 3.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 4.5 3.0 - - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Natalie Spano Natalie Spano G 2 5.5 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.5 - - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Niera Stevens Niera Stevens G 2 5.0 2.0 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 - - - - 25.0 0.0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Shannon Heine Shannon Heine G 2 8.5 1.0 3.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 4.0 - - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Brooke Missry Brooke Missry G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

130 located field-goal attempts in 2 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Hall25% Hall19% Spano100% Fusetti67% Hernandez43% Filien50% Walz50%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Fields36% Bowman22% Bowman50% Stevens100% Fusetti25% Fusetti50% Walz28% Hernandez50% Walz24%
Misses: who misses most here

Lena WalzCici HernandezErica HallLauren FilienAlena FusettiLayke FieldsCarmaya BowmanNatalie SpanoNiera Stevens

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 8-19 42.1 16 Erica Hall 25% (4 pts) Sofia Wilson 25% (4 pts) Layke Fields 36% (4 misses) Julia Lewis 18% (2 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 21-44 47.7 42 Erica Hall 19% (8 pts) Carmaya Bowman 10% (4 pts) Carmaya Bowman 22% (5 misses) Cici Hernandez 13% (3 misses)
Mid-range left 0-2 0.0 0 - - Carmaya Bowman 50% (1 misses) Lauren Filien 50% (1 misses)
Mid-range center 0-0 - 0 - - - -
Mid-range right 1-2 50.0 2 Natalie Spano 100% (2 pts) - Niera Stevens 100% (1 misses) -
Left corner 3 3-7 42.9 9 Alena Fusetti 67% (6 pts) Ella Cupka 33% (3 pts) Alena Fusetti 25% (1 misses) Erica Hall 25% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 0-4 0.0 0 - - Alena Fusetti 50% (2 misses) Erica Hall 25% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 7-25 28.0 21 Cici Hernandez 43% (9 pts) Lena Walz 43% (9 pts) Lena Walz 28% (5 misses) Sofia Wilson 22% (4 misses)
Above-break 3 center 4-6 66.7 12 Lauren Filien 50% (6 pts) Lena Walz 50% (6 pts) Cici Hernandez 50% (1 misses) Lauren Filien 50% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 right 4-21 19.0 12 Lena Walz 50% (6 pts) Cici Hernandez 25% (3 pts) Lena Walz 24% (4 misses) Alena Fusetti 18% (3 misses)