Model Predictions
| Model | Mercyhurst Lakers | St. Bonavent... | Spread | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo
2026-27 ratings to date
|
42.8% (#198) | 57.2% (#257) | Mercyhu... -2.8 | 67-64 |
| Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
38.0% (#191) | 62.0% (#280) | - | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
30.4% (#200) | 69.6% (#266) | - | - |
| Margin
2026-27 ratings to date
|
66.1% (#159) | 33.9% (#262) | Mercyhu... -7.4 | - |
| Margin Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
65.3% (#158) | 34.7% (#259) | Mercyhu... -7.0 | - |
| Pythagorean
2026-27 ratings to date
|
30.0% (#292) | 70.0% (#238) | - | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
54.2% (#225) | 45.8% (#244) | - | - |
| Log Adjusted
2026-27 ratings to date
|
55.2% (#219) | 44.8% (#243) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def
2026-27 ratings to date
|
42.1% (#199) | 57.9% (#291) | - | - |
| Points Off/Def Recency
2026-27 ratings to date
|
36.5% (#205) | 63.5% (#275) | - | - |
| Core Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
60.5% (#199) | 39.5% (#280) | - | - |
| Recency Ensemble
2026-27 ratings to date
|
59.4% (#199) | 40.6% (#276) | - | - |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry
2026-27 ratings to date
|
53.7% (#210) | 46.3% (#267) | - | - |
| Adjusted Context Blend | Prior-only ranking with no forecast | |||
2026-27 ratings to date: Spread: 5.2 points per 100 Elo plus a 2.4-point home edge (2025-26 margin fit); projected score: 2025-26's average total of 131 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.
Team Stats Comparison
| Stat | Mercyhurst Lakers | St. Bonavent... |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 |
| PPG | 62.7 | 68.0 |
| FG% | 35.8% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 27.3% |
| FT% | 73.3% | 80.0% |
| RPG | 33.7 | 37.0 |
| APG | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| SPG | 12.0 | 7.0 |
| BPG | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| TOPG | 21.3 | 15.0 |
Efficiency Ratings
| Metric | Mercyhurst Lakers | St. Bonavent... |
|---|---|---|
| Adj. Off Eff | 94.6 | - |
| Adj. Def Eff | 105.4 | - |
| Adj. Net Eff | -10.8 | - |
Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength
Mercyhurst Lakers Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erica Hall | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 26.3 |
| Cici Hernandez | 7.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 24.3 |
| Sofia Wilson | 8.0 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 |
| Lena Walz | 8.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 21.7 |
| Carmaya Bowman | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 16.7 |
St. Bonaventure Bonnies Top Players
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | MPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elyse MacDonough | 15.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 |
| Ella Trinkaus | 21.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 |
| Ivona Djikanovic | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 27.0 |
| Mackenzie Pettinelli | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 |
| Brillana Boyd | 12.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 |