Merchant Marine
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1117 (#52) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1118 (#114) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1174 (#39) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.1 (#188) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +14.4 (#169) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.944 (#205) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.979 (#106) | NetEff +27.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.485 (#387) | AdjNet -0.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.457 (#389) | AdjNet -1.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.440 (#408) | AdjO 60.2 | AdjD 62.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.850 (#35) | AdjO 69.7 | AdjD 50.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.844 (#108) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.860 (#90) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1224 (#55) | RD 107 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | @ | Hunter | L | 68 - 72 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Baruch | W | 78 - 39 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Old Westbury | W | 79 - 37 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | St. Joseph's (Brkln) | W | 76 - 48 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Farmingdale St. | W | 56 - 53 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Medgar Evers | W | 81 - 58 |
| 2025-11-30 | vs | NYU | L | 70 - 102 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Manhattanville | L | 61 - 62 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | Purchase | W | 73 - 52 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | UMSV | W | 93 - 35 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Yeshiva | W | 78 - 35 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Mt. St. Mary (NY) | L | 73 - 80 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Purchase | W | 71 - 57 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Old Westbury | W | 95 - 21 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | St. Joseph's (Brkln) | W | 81 - 28 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Farmingdale St. | W | 61 - 47 |
| 2026-02-01 | @ | Yeshiva | W | 76 - 22 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Mt. St. Mary (NY) | W | 84 - 56 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Sarah Lawrence | W | 83 - 63 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolae Barton | - | 18 | 24.8 | 19.4 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 12.1 | 23.2 | 143 | 11.0 | 64.3 | 65.9 | 0.0 | 75.3 | 2.93 | 68.8 | 65.9 |
| Emily Grasseler | - | 19 | 30.6 | 17.5 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 16.0 | 14.7 | 135 | 10.4 | 47.8 | 45.1 | 33.3 | 75.3 | 2.2 | 49.3 | 45.2 |
| Hannah Ramsden | - | 19 | 30.9 | 15.7 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 154 | 12.8 | 55.2 | 46.7 | 38.9 | 87.9 | 2.95 | 57.8 | 55.3 |
| Breanna Sommers | - | 19 | 26.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 155 | 11.1 | 76.4 | 38.0 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 3.3 | 45.0 | 43.6 |
| Jaden Lodice | - | 19 | 28.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 205 | 15.8 | 87.4 | 38.9 | 29.5 | 44.4 | 3.44 | 46.5 | 46.1 |
| Tatum Carney | - | 19 | 15.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 118 | 9.1 | 69.1 | 30.4 | 26.7 | 33.3 | -0.5 | 33.1 | 32.9 |
| Cevyn Crutcher | - | 17 | 20.4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 168 | 14.0 | 141.8 | 30.8 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 0.46 | 32.1 | 30.8 |
| Lilly Smeltzer | - | 11 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 68 | 6.8 | 155.6 | 50.0 | 0 | 33.3 | -0.22 | 47.7 | 50.0 |
| Natalie Doan | - | 18 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 101 | 8.4 | 176.8 | 18.5 | 17.4 | 83.3 | -0.52 | 27.0 | 21.5 |
| Sydney Brown | - | 18 | 12.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | -1 | -0.2 | -33.8 | 30.6 | 28.6 | 100.0 | 0.46 | 38.1 | 36.7 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG