🐻⬇️🏀

Mercer

Season: 2026 2023 2017
Also known as: Mercer
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1026 (#203) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1037 (#219) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1010 (#315) HCA +75 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +11.2 (#196) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.998 (#78) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +42.0 More → 0.998 (#62) NetEff +42.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +29.2 More → 0.967 (#125) AdjNet +29.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +29.5 More → 0.973 (#123) AdjNet +29.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 53.0 More → 0.840 (#132) AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 53.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.7 | AdjD 58.2 More → 0.683 (#94) AdjO 66.7 | AdjD 58.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.763 (#130) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.747 (#137) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 255 | GP 2 More → 1092 (#113) RD 255 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-17 vs Erskine - Incomplete score
2026-01-02 vs AUM - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.