🐻⬇️🏀

Mercer

Season: 2026 2019 2017 2015 2013
Also known as: Mercer
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1057 (#166) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1068 (#218) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 990 (#524) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +31.2 (#26) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +26.0 (#79) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.999 (#81) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +33.6 More → 0.980 (#80) AdjNet +33.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +33.3 More → 0.982 (#78) AdjNet +33.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 88.5 | AdjD 62.2 More → 0.916 (#71) AdjO 88.5 | AdjD 62.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 83.6 | AdjD 69.7 More → 0.780 (#44) AdjO 83.6 | AdjD 69.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.871 (#44) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.846 (#46) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 332 | GP 2 More → 1148 (#100) RD 332 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-05 vs LaGrange - Incomplete score
2025-12-07 vs Oglethorpe - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.