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Mercer

Season: 2026 2019 2017 2015 2013
Also known as: Mercer
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1035 (#217) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1070 (#204) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 990 (#524) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +26.0 (#79) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.999 (#81) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +33.6 More → 0.980 (#80) AdjNet +33.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +33.3 More → 0.982 (#78) AdjNet +33.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 88.5 | AdjD 62.2 More → 0.916 (#71) AdjO 88.5 | AdjD 62.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 83.6 | AdjD 69.7 More → 0.780 (#44) AdjO 83.6 | AdjD 69.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.871 (#43) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.846 (#46) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 333 | GP 2 More → 1148 (#101) RD 333 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-05 vs LaGrange W 101 - 62
2025-12-07 vs Oglethorpe W 100 - 50

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Armani Mighty - 2 19.9 15.0 8.5 2.0 1.0 2.5 1.0 8.5 19.5 - - - 76.5 0 50.0 - 73.1 76.5
Baraka Okojie - 1 21.4 14.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 9.0 - - - 30.8 0.0 100.0 - 44.8 30.8
Kyle Cuffe Jr. - 2 18.4 12.5 5.0 1.5 2.0 0.5 2.0 9.5 10.0 148 7.4 38.8 47.4 50.0 33.3 3.36 61.5 63.2
Bendji Pierre - 2 16.6 11.5 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 7.5 85 14.2 305.4 44.4 36.4 50.0 0.5 55.7 55.6
Quinton Perkins II - 2 22.1 11.0 2.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 9.5 8.5 - - - 42.1 35.7 50.0 - 55.3 55.3
Zaire Williams - 2 18.9 11.0 4.0 0.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 8.0 9.0 10 0.5 1.8 56.2 22.2 100.0 -0.44 65.2 62.5
Tristan Gross - 2 14.9 10.0 4.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 7.0 10.5 - - - 42.9 42.9 83.3 - 60.1 53.6
Connor Serven - 1 22.3 8.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 10.0 - - - 57.1 0.0 0 - 57.1 57.1
Brady Shoulders - 1 20.9 8.0 8.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 14.0 - - - 25.0 100.0 83.3 - 60.2 37.5
Braeden Carlsen - 2 16.5 5.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 6.5 1.5 - - - 30.8 20.0 25.0 - 37.3 38.5
Jaydon Cole - 2 11.6 3.0 3.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 4.5 4.5 8 2.0 342.9 22.2 25.0 0 0.03 33.3 33.3
Alex Koch - 2 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
TJ Grant - 2 14.2 1.0 3.0 3.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.5 - - - 16.7 0.0 0 - 16.7 16.7

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG